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With my customary bad timing, here's a thread about how the Commons is blocked on Brexit (and actually @TheIndGroup doesn't really change this):
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So, we know that there are various factions in the Commons, each with varying degrees of organisation/coherence and of different sizes
(this diagram isn't exhaustive BTW)
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(this diagram isn't exhaustive BTW)
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Importantly, these groupings don't sit on party political lines (as we're seeing this morning), so it's not simply a reproduction of what has been the dominant organising force, nor is it possible to operationalise the usual procedure of whipping a majority
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What marks out each of these groups is that they all think they have a killer argument in their favour.
We can leave whether that's actually true to one side, because it's the self-image that matters
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We can leave whether that's actually true to one side, because it's the self-image that matters
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Depending on what you care about, each of these groups can make a strong case for holding their ground, because each is working from a very different starting point and to very different end points
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Two problems, though.
Firstly, none of these groups holds a majority, even ephemerally, let alone structurally, so they need to get some allies
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Firstly, none of these groups holds a majority, even ephemerally, let alone structurally, so they need to get some allies
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Secondly, each has a pretty bad flaw that holes them beyond the waterline: it's hard to see how any of these could be addressed without involving some radical change
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So there's a paradox: you need to flex to get allies, but the flex needed probably does for your preferred outcome
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That's made more frustrating by the number of possible alliances you might imagine being possible
(again, a non-exhaustive diagram, with just the ones that sprang to mind)
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(again, a non-exhaustive diagram, with just the ones that sprang to mind)
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So you could do it, but here we run into the final problem.
Everyone else has a really bad flaw in their position, and you've got a great proposition, so why should you be the one to give ground, especially if it means badly compromising your position?
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Everyone else has a really bad flaw in their position, and you've got a great proposition, so why should you be the one to give ground, especially if it means badly compromising your position?
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And so we get stuck
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The shuffling of the party-political chairs (as today) doesn't change this basic situation (although it might allow for a bit more flexibility on voting): you'd need a wholesale restructuring of parties for it to make a difference and that's not on the cards
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In sum:
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