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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 @nicktolhurst
, 12 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Very small thread on why many people (including me) have been getting #Brexit wrong. We've been blinded by the theatre & complex issues of the "EU negotiations" - but in fact its much simpler than that....indeed.....
2/ #Brexit "EU negotiations" are not in any significant way actually taking place, & to the extent that that they are at a minor level even these are largely irrelevant. Once I grasped this everything else of the last 12 months made sense.....
3/ The political establishment whether Corbyn's Labour or May's Conservatives (& indeed much of the political media) are, contrary to the breathless reporting of BBC etc, largely unconcerned with the concrete nature of the EU process (not negotiations) of #Brexit. For 2 reasons..
4/ Firstly, there's always been only 2routes #brexit cld go do down Norway(soft) or Canada(hard) & "negotiations can only meaningfully take place once UK decides for an option & then tries to get the best version & add-ons of one of these options as possible. But even stranger...
5/ Both Lab & Tories favour soft #Brexit (dont be fooled by ERG). Approx 400-500+MPs (who normally never agree on much) favor soft brexit as they know hard version reduces UKeconomy, influence & preprograms Irish unification & possibly Scotland Independence. So why the jam......?
6/ Answer is both parties want the other party to come out for Soft #Brexit......first. Whoever does that can then be blamed for destroying brexits "dream of independence" and "fantasy super trade deals". But therein lies the problem for the UK the longer each party waits.......
7/ The longer the delay to "real" EU negotiations the less options for bespoke bits & add-ons. As times fritters away only "hardest Canada" or "softest Norway" possible. EU wld need years to work through extra add-ons (assuming they even agree).
8/ Result of this is: Hard #brexit MPs increasingly justify hard option in political survival terms, while soft brexit MPs are counting on fact that no govt (even Mays) will actually sign up to "hard Canada" & despite media reporting they have very good reason to think so as....
9/ If you watch carefully May, despite hard #brexit rhetoric, is trying desperately to get 5 year transition in instead of 2. which of course can delay the moment of reckoning on choosing between hard v. soft brexit till 2024 (& beyond..?). So the next time someone tells you.....
10/ "EU trying to force this..." or "UK arguing for that..." - they're not - as no negotiations are taking place. UK policy of both parties is to actually avoid negotiations as long as possible (till atleast after next election). Whats happening now is merely.....
11/ #Brexit is merely politics - nothing else - no EU deals, no Brexit preparations or planning etc. Both parties are maneovering to capture soft brexit majority while blaming the other party for "ignoring will of the people" or "screwing up will of the people". In conclusion...
12/ #Brexit must be carried out...politically. But simultaneously cannot be carried out....institutionally or economically. What we're seeing now is merely the political fight before the "real brexit debate" takes place...sometime next decade...possibly...or possibly never. /ends
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