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I gave a talk yesterday at the @NWSJacksonville IWT meeting. I discussed what I see as the likely future of where the field of meteorology is going in terms of communicating forecasts and safety. I would like to share those thoughts here. 1/n 
@NWSJacksonville The goal of NWS and broadcast mets, EMs, first responders, and elected officials in using social media to share weather information is the same now as when we first started using it. The goal is to save lives! (Extra credit if it also helps make recovery easier.) /2
@NWSJacksonville Part of the challenge, of course, is that we are experts in our fields communicating to folks who are experts in other fields. They don't spend as much time thinking about weather and safety as we do. /3
@NWSJacksonville Over the past 5-8 years or so, the NWS has decided to put a more concerted effort into researching how the public go from hearing warnings to acting on them. We want that process (alert to safety) to occur as fast as possible. /4
@NWSJacksonville Fortunately, the researchers weren't starting from scratch. There are a few different models out there that attempt to describe this process. This is one of the simpler models I've seen. (If only it were this easy!) /5
@NWSJacksonville On the other hand, the Protective Action Decision Model is probably one of the more complex that I've seen, and hard to summarize in a single slide. /6
@NWSJacksonville But more often than not, Mileti and Sorenson will come up, because it's a simple list of items that is easy to put on a slide and a little more straight forward to understand, while retaining some complexity. /7
@NWSJacksonville Now, one of the things that Mileti and Sorenson said is that you need to improve the warning content to save lives. And that's certainly what we believed. We're still tinkering wih this, albeit now in a better way, through HazSimp. /8
@NWSJacksonville A couple of years ago, Chuck Doswell gave an NWA talk that… well honestly, I didn't like most of his talk. But he did say that playing with the warning text only affects the beginning and end parts of this model. And I think there's insight here. /9
@NWSJacksonville We can alert people in new ways, reduce jargon, say what's already being observed, recommend actions, and repeat. But it's difficult to write a warning to 100,000 folks in a way where everyone can personalize it to their specific situation. /10
@NWSJacksonville Even deciding what protective action is best for you, your situation with your real and perceived responsibilites, may differ from what we recommend. And each individual has to actually respond on their own. Warnings just add some (needed!) motivation. /11
@NWSJacksonville In response, I have personally labeled this the "Empowerment Gap". We're currently not helping people with these tasks. We can if we focus on empowering people. (A big H/T to Dr. Klockow-McClain for drawing my attention to the idea of empowerment several years ago.) /12
@NWSJacksonville What does that mean? Well, we have to understand that, for a long time, NWS and FEMA and others have built our messages around explicitly telling folks what to do. But you know how telling your kids what to do has a low success rate? So does telling the public what to do. /13
@NWSJacksonville And I'm not the only one saying this! Here's a slide from a SKYWARN event in Austin earlier this month. It shows a vast array of "Family Emergancy Preparedness Plans" and "Emergency Kit" brochures we've pubished over the years. I believe this was @texasembassy's talk. /14
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy Tweet I was referring to.
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy I didn't attend that talk, but the tweets I saw appeared to couch the needed change in terms of a leadership gap. I think this complements what I'm saying here. Empowering people certainly takes leadership! Not just providing awareness and recommendations. /15
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy Another slide from the same talk.
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy Certainly, the themes of supporting and coaching will aid empowerment. Because, you see, empowering people isn't just about telling folks what to do. We aren't empowering women in STEM (or loads of other groups!) by just giving them instructions. /16
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy Empowerment is about not just remembering something you were told once. An empowered person is someone who knows that they know what to do. That what they know is correct. They have confidence they can do it. And they believe they will succeed. Try doing that in warning text! /17
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy So how do we accomplish this? (Thanks for reading this far, BTW).
My two suggestions right now are through the tools of narrative and implicit messaging. /18
My two suggestions right now are through the tools of narrative and implicit messaging. /18
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy Narrative: Every movie plot basically uses the same format. It interests people. @DekeArndt talks about it here with hurricane coverage. Can we tweak our messaging to take advantage of these principles when messaging safety and forecast uncertainty? /19
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt Example: Take the TADD message, which isn't working. Instead, can we guide folks through the event? "You're driving to somewhere you always go. But now the road you always take is covered in water. It's OK and right to be the first person to do a 27-point turn and turn around."
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt "If the people behind you start honking and yelling, you'll can be comfortable knowing that you're just ahead of your time. It's better to protect your car and yourself than to get there on time. We have cell phones. Call whoever you're headed to and say you'll be late." /21
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt In my opinion, even that kind of short walk-through rarely accompanies the phrase "Turn Around; Don't Drown". A memorable phrase is supposed to remind us of a larger principle, virtue, or dialogue. Without it, the phrase is less effective. /22
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt I also see narrative as a tool to help message forecast uncertainty. And it looks like there are some early attempts to try this out. /23
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt On 14Jan @weatherbrains, Dr Klockow-McClain said, "Physical scientists want to have a structure to shove their communication into. What I think is we need to focus less on trying to pidgeon-hole our story into little numbers or categories and we need to focus on telling stories."
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains Dr Klockow-McClain cont'd: "Alan Sealls, when he was in the hurricane season trying to communicate uncertainty, he told stories. 'Here's one way Irma could go and kind of why. But here's what you can expect if it does. Here's another way it could go.' He packaged it together."
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains Implicit Messaging: Instead of explicitly telling folks what to do (nagging them), ask questions that implicitly suggests what they could do. This makes it sound like you're working with them on tasks. /26
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains Research shows implicit messaging is inherantly more persuasive than explicit messaging. So, remember @DekeArndt's mantra here… /27
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains Example: The graphic on the right was something @WxComm wrote up for TC Joaquin (2015). It's the best example of implicit messaging I've seen. I've never seen it imitated. I think that's a shame. /28
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains @WxComm Example: The @nwas #safeplaceselfie campaign, IMO, was an attempt to make sheltering popular and to have people practice outside of a weather threat. Just doing it once… practicing… is empowering! Now, people aren't just trying to remember what to do while under stress. /29
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains @WxComm @nwas Certainly, implicit messaging is best in quiet weather or when the event is 2+ days out (depending on the type of event). When the event is occurring, NWS/EM/fire/police/etc. are all authorities and should be authoritative in your messaging. That still makes sense. /30
@NWSJacksonville @texasembassy @DekeArndt @weatherbrains @WxComm @nwas End: Changing from a method of explicit messaging to empowerment messaging is going to take time and a bunch of iteration. But it's what I think we'll be talking about in 5 to 10 years as it's backed up and refined by research. Thanks for listening to my @nwas talk. (get it?)
