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@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal I don't agree with you that anything is being conflated, or that we can't know things beyond simple ranges of possible values here. Formally speaking, every bit (the computer kind) of information in your experience that is more or less likely in worlds where an EF conspiracy 1/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal exists is evidence that tells you *something* about the real world likelihood of that conspiracy existing in fact. That is, there are parts of your experience that have mutual entropy with the part of reality that is or is not an EF conspiracy, and this means you do in fact 2/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal know much more than you claim about this topic. Every different way that Vitalik could respond to a tweet, every different public decision that the EF announces, every piece of data in the blockchain, all of these are things that would be impacted by the real world existence 3/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal of a specific configuration of minds, bank accounts, and private keys that would correspond to an EF conspiracy. You can't plead ignorance. If you heard that a news company had obtained Vitalik's private emails and financial records, you would anticipate very different 4/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal things from their forthcoming article about it, depending on all the evidence that your brain is continually collecting on this topic whether you want to acknowledge it with a formal term or not. I suspect that, consciously or not, you already know this. Otherwise you would 5/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal have been eager to say, "yes I do in fact believe with high probability that there is an EF conspiracy and it would have these observable consequences which we can check to see if I'm right" instead of just trying to avoid being nailed down on it. The different ways *you* 6/n
@factcheckmypost @liamihorne @ETHGlobal can behave based on your private opinions, whether you share them publicly or not, also impact your actions, and serve as evidence of your internal mental states, just like Vitalik's actions and behaviors do. Claiming uncertainty doesn't stop that process from happening. 7/7
