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If [Candidate X] would increase the Democrats' chances of winning the presidency by say 2 percentage points, but increase the chance of winning **one Senate seat** by say 10 percent, Democrats should strongly prefer them to run for president, not Senate.
Especially since a strong presidential candidate would tend to produce coattails up and down the ballot that would help Democrats in literally every other race.
The only candidate for whom this discussion is really even worth having is for Sherrod Brown, who would literally cost the Democrats a Senate seat (although only for 2 years) if he became POTUS/VPOUTS. With everyone else, it's a rounding error.
