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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"Despite the fact that the government only told businesses a few weeks ago what they would have to do in a no-deal scenario, and is constantly saying no one is expecting it, ministers still fully intend to blame businesses if everything goes wrong."
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"The government is also intending to blame citizens for their own misfortune in a no-deal scenario."
"With weeks to go, businesses and individuals that are trying to prepare are asking for government's help. We cannot answer any of their questions, because we have delayed so many key decisions."
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More from @Raphael_Hogarth see all

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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
If HMG and the DUP want to use domestic law to "underline" the UK's interpretation of the backstop, I think there are three ways of doing it: (1) the completely pointless way, (2) the slightly unnerving way, and (3) the downright reckless way.
The first, pointless option is to use the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to give the Government powers under statute that it already has by Royal Prerogative. Eg, give a minister the power to open a dispute with the EU re bad faith if she thinks UK is trapped in the backstop.
And/or, give a minister power to table legislation to suspend the operation of the backstop, if the arbitration panel has ruled that the EU is acting in bad faith, and that the EU failed to comply with its first ruling. (These are the circs in which the deal allows suspension.)
Read 5 tweets
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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
Right, so this is the paragraph of the joint interpretative instrument that the government will spin as "unilateral exit mechanism".

This is, I think, exactly the process that exists under the current agreement, which I set out here:
UK claims EU is breaching best endeavours
3m later, formal dispute
6-12m later, arbitrators gives ruling
A "reasonable period" later, UK asks for new ruling on whether EU response gd enough
90d later, ruling given
6m later, UK can suspend part of the deal- i.e. leave backstop
And if the EU thinks that *that* (i.e., the UK leaving the backstop) is disproportionate, it can ask the arbitrators for yet another ruling, to be given within 60 days.
Read 3 tweets
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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
Some MPs talk about “no deal” as a great liberation. “No deal” actually means total supplication, handing huge control over the UK to the European Commission.
1/
Read the government’s technical notices on no deal, and you will find that an awful lot of sectors will need a decision from Brussels to keep trading.
2/
Agriculture: the UK is “confident” that its products of animal origin meet the EU’s import requirements for third countries, but the EU has not formally listed the UK products as such. If it doesn’t, no exports of animal products to Europe.
3/
Read 17 tweets

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