Thread by @nickeardleybbc

Morning. Was quite busy last night when #indyref2 piece went out on @BBCScotNine. Will tweet a few key points from it this morning. But @ me if you have any questions.

Opponents of threads, look away now

What our story on #indyref2 reveals:

UK ministers & well placed SNP figures think Nicola Sturgeon will call for the power to hold another independence referendum soon

The UK government is preparing to say no

The SNP know this

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

Senior Tories think opposition to another referendum is hardening in Scotland (based on their internal polling, which I haven’t seen). They also say another debate on independence would be a distraction when Brexit is still being worked out.

The SNP are adamant they have a mandate for another referendum because of their 2016 Scottish Parliament manifesto. But some are talking about reinforcing that mandate through an election; either UK-wide or in Scotland

Some at the top of the SNP think they didn’t say enough about independence in the snap general election in 2017 - and think it should be front and centre if there’s another election.

There is debate in the SNP on WHEN another referendum should be. Some want to fire the starting gun now (one MP even accused Nicola Sturgeon of dithering). Others say they’re not ready and need a few more years.

Some Scottish Tories, btw, are saying if the PM is ever forced into allowing #indyref2 the UK government should set the terms; the date, the question and the franchise.

There is concern over the impact leaving the EU with no deal could have on the union. I reported a few weeks ago that cabinet ministers fear it could lead to a border poll in Northern Ireland

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

There are fears in Government that No Deal could lead to a surge in support for Scottish independence too. One minster warned against creating an environment of chaos and uncertainty - warning that could move the dial towards independence.

Oh and here’s a bonus @bbcpodlitical on the story and the use of anonymous source quotes

bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07…