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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
There is no advertiser more relentless in trying to sell to me than the Shen Yun classical Chinese dance and music business. They are relentless advertisers and use every available marketing approach. Their sales and marketing budget must be massive. Or maybe they just like me.
"Shenyun" performance is a tool of the cult and anti-China propaganda. Clearly, "Shen yun" is not a cultural performance at all but a political tool of "Falun Gong" to preach cult messages" china-embassy.org/eng/xglj/flgzx/

ARPU of a cult member must be high due to the very high CAC!
Decades of experience with unit economics makes me think about everything that must generate cash to survive as a set of unit economics (e.g., hotdog stand, cult, restaurant). It's a mental model. Even if revenue is transactional you can estimate ARPU, CAC, GM and churn.
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Podcasting or blogging involves at least two sets of unit economics. Creators have the option to roll their own. Anyone who wants to syndicate them must offer a better outcome than doing it themselves. This sets up a wholesale transfer price negotiation. What's the revenue split?
When a syndicator like Medium or these "Netflix of podcasting" businesses negotiate they must offer a deal that is better than a "do it yourself" option. For me, the ability to ensure that there are no ads for financial scams or even "My Pillow" on 25IQ is an essential element.
Up the value chain from the customer is the podcaster. That podcaster and the syndicator have different amounts of pricing power. Any syndicator who ignores that the podcaster has an alternative (a BATNA) will have many of the same problems as Medium. fastcompany.com/90315635/why-p…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
What kills a business is a lack of cash. What causes a business like meal delivery (kit or prepared) to run out of cash are broken unit economics. Munchery's Chapter 11 reveals they still don't understand the impact of customer churn (inverse of retention) gallery.mailchimp.com/8d06deefb7d38f…
"Companies that retain their customers ...should be awarded a much higher multiple than another business that do not ... even if the historical revenue patterns look exactly the same." knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/game-c… The financial impact of greater customer retention can be non linear.
Why isn't Munchery a Chapter 7?

I illustrate the unit economics of a fictional business named "Blue Oven" here: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

Unit Economics: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

Churn/retention: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

CAC: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

GM: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 5 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"'Cash flow from GE’s industrial operations will be negative this year' .. This year’s cash outflow from the power division will be worse than last year’s $2.7B burn.' bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic… Exactly backward: "The metric is considered an indicator of earnings potential."
"Earnings" are only an indicator of future cash flow which investors can actually spend. It's a DCF not DE. "The value of any financial asset boils down to three things: some measure of cash flow, some measure of risk, and some measure of forecast horizon." Michael Mauboussin
It is not possible to pay for "in-home, assisted living or skilled nursing care" with "earnings." What will pay for that is absolute dollar free cash flow. google.com/amp/s/mobile.r…
Read 3 tweets

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