Thread by @AlmingtonCap

1/6 Thread:

Elon's Model Y pump clearly hasn't gone as planned. Far from a cause for excitement, the 3/14 unveiling looks like an act of desperation. Tesla's back is against the wall. $TSLA $TSLAQ

@TeslaCharts @auto_schmidt @CoverDrive12 @orthereaboot

seekingalpha.com/article/424651…

2/6 The unveil, followed so soon after the $35k Model 3 flop, looks like an effort to shift the market's focus from the ugly present to a brighter future. This has been a standard Musk play for years. But this time the market isn't buying it. $TSLA $TSLAQ
cnbc.com/2019/03/04/tes…

3/6 The market's worries are understandable.

Demand in the US has collapsed, as @TeslaCharts so aptly charts.

EU demand has failed to make up the difference (Cheers again, TC. Ditto, @auto_schmidt for the Germany data). $TSLA $TSLAQ

4/6 Meanwhile, price cuts have damaged $TSLA's brand & alienated many early and mid-stage adopters.

More importantly, margins will soon be crushed. As @CoverDrive12 demonstrates, the Q3/Q4 profits turn to losses if we apply the current prices. $TSLAQ

https://twitter.com/CoverDrive12/status/1102940526343585793

5/6 The whole Model Y story is half-baked: As @orthereaboot points out, when the M3 was unveiled, equipment procurement was underway. There's no sign of that for Model Y. Hell, we don't even know for sure where it'll be built ("probably" NV). $TSLA $TSLAQ

https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1102554493332398080

6/6 Bottom Line: Even if $TSLA can hit volume production in 2020, it'll be too little, too late. Softer-than-expected demand for the Model 3, as well as deteriorating demand for the Model S/X, will bite into Tesla both financially, and narratively. $TSLAQ

seekingalpha.com/article/424651…