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Almington Capital
@AlmingtonCap
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/6 The Model 3 has been the hinge of $TSLA's growth narrative for years. Boosters touted a vast pre-order book as evidence of massive demand, declaring that it would take years to work through the backlog. That narrative has essentially collapsed. $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/424078…
2/6 $TSLA has spent yrs plugging the 450k order backlog. Elon couldnt stop tweeting about it and the co. kept touting it. Then, as of the Q4 call, they're "not thinking" about it anymore. Closest we'll ever see to them confirming backlog exhaustion. $TSLAQ
marketwatch.com/story/what-gol…
3/6 Of course, we know why they've stopped touting the backlog. Not only is it gone, but demand has effectively collapsed in N. America, with just 6.5k deliveries in Jan. $TSLA $TSLAQ
@TeslaCharts
4/6 Of course, @InsideEVs & other $TSLA water-carriers have implied the Jan. drop is due to shipments to EU & China. This is bogus for 2 reasons. First, we know there's loads of inventory all over the US that no one's buying. $TSLAQ
@ElonBachman
5/6 Second, we know demand in the EU & China is nothing like $TSLA hoped. Orders at 20k in the EU is pathetic. Meanwhile, signs point to demand in the HUNDREDS in China. They aren't picking up any slack right now. $TSLAQ
@markbspiegel
insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-…
6/6 To summarize: Things look set to get much worse for $TSLA in 2019. "Gutting" the US delivery team proved the recent demand drop to be secular decline, while sluggish orders overseas will fail to move the needle. So much for infinite growth! $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/424078…
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Almington Capital
@AlmingtonCap
1/6 $TSLA's solar division has been collapsing in slow motion for a while, but in recent days some folks have finally started waking up. The ramifications for Tesla & Elon Musk will be severe. $TSLAQ

@SenKennedy @NewYorkGOP @news4buffalo

seekingalpha.com/article/423899…
2/6 $TSLA hit a 5-year low of solar installations in Q4 2018 (the estimable @TeslaCharts offers a great graphical depiction of this obvious wind-down).

And there's more pain to come: Tesla's guidance shows even less deployment in Q1, meaning a new post-2012 low. $TSLAQ
3/6 Meanwhile, Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, where $TSLA builds its solar power systems, has cost New York taxpayers $750 million. Elon promised to create 1460 jobs in exchange. Current reported headcount: 800 (half of which are Panasonic employees. $TSLAQ
wivb.com/news/investiga…
Read 6 tweets
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Almington Capital
@AlmingtonCap
1/6 So $TSLA rockets into the close on the basis of an @elonmusk tweet pledging 100% Supercharger coverage in Europe in 2019 without any justification. Or 8K. Nothing. Yet surely it'll cost big $ to do. $TSLAQ

@markbspiegel @MidwestHedgie @painfulshort @jaberwock2 @Polixenes13
2/6 Supposedly, Elon is to have potentially market-moving tweets vetted by a securities lawyer, as per his settlement with @SEC_Enforcement. Of course, we know how much he respects that particular agency. Babysitting's set to commence no later than Dec. 28. Is this a last hurrah?
3/6 Of course, we also know, thanks to his @60Minutes interview, that Our Lord Elon feels protected by the 1st Amendment & doesn't much mind if some market-moving tweets slip through the cracks on occasion. $TSLA $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/422776…
Read 7 tweets
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Almington Capital
@AlmingtonCap
1/ Brief thread on $TSLAQ production & demand. These are 2 sides of the $TSLA narrative. It needs exponential growth in production AND the demand to absorb said production for the huge market cap to hold. We already know production has stalled out. Just look at Bloomberg's model.
2/ As we know all too well (and as we've repeatedly recounted), production can't be sustained at the rates @elonmusk has promised. Long gone is the 7k burst wk, let alone the 10k/wk M3 promises. Even the 5k/wk "sustained" rate has proven ephemeral. $TSLA
seekingalpha.com/article/422594…
3/ Thanksgiving was the last week of $TSLA "production hell", in which Elon fought to show a 1k/day extrapolation. Evidently, that particular flavor of flimflam has gone out of style. Unsurprising, since such bursts have proven busts time and again. $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/422460…
Read 10 tweets

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Polixenes
@Polixenes13
1/ Does any sell-side analyst write more notes on a single company than @MorganStanley's Adam Jonas writes about $TSLA? He's out with another one this morning, with surprises both for what it says and what it omits.
2/ Let's first go right to the bottom line: $TSLA price target dips to $283 (from $291). The "core auto" component is up a hair, to $228, but "Tesla Mobility (Tesla Network)" is down, from $71 to $55. Tesla Energy remains at zero.
3/ Let's focus on "Tesla Mobility" for just a bit. Jonas had expected $TSLA to launch a commercial fleet of 1,000 cars this year, and expected the fleet to grow to 1,275,000 (!) cars by 2030. Yes, really.
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Abhinav Agarwal
@AbhinavAgarwal
read
short thread on books I have read, starting with sometime late 2017...
1. The Asshole Survival Guide. @work_matters's sequel to his blockbuster bestseller, "The No Asshole Rule". A depressing read when you realize how toxic some workplaces can be.
2."Black Money and Tax Havens", by Prof @rvaidya2000 - a short, breezy window into the world of black money. Again, a somewhat depressing read when you realize how weak the intent and how inconsequential the efforts into rooting out black money have been.
#books #ReviewInATweet
3. "Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India's 12-digit Revolution", by @ShankkarAiyar
Perhaps the first comprehensive account of Aadhaar's birth & its midwives. Insightful a/c into how the world's largest & most intrusive, privacy-destroying scheme came to life.
#ReviewInATweet
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Shawn McGuirk 👨🏻‍🔬👨🏻‍💻📝☕🔜🤺💀 ➡️👨🏻‍🎓
@ShawnMcGuirk
#CSPC2018 panel on #scienceadvice starts!

@DLEKirkwood chief scientist of @NRCan says issue is not do much making sure science is valued in govt (seems it is) but to ensure evidence is used in policy. Plus, policy is inherently quicker than science.

#scipol #canpoli #cdnsci
... The challenge for new science advisors and chief scientists is to ensure that the need for #EBDM in policy is understood across the department, across govt. #CSPC2018
#CSPC2018 Sarah Gallagher @csa_asc says building relationships btw scientists and policymakers (#scicomm skills helpful here!) is key
Read 30 tweets
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Liz Webster🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇪🇺 #FBPE
@abcpoppins
1. The decision to leave the EU was NOT made by the electorate nor by Parliament but by the PM alone relying on the result of the referendum and for purely political reasons: this is in breach of the U.K’s constitution.
2. Supreme Ct in Miller didn't specify how the UK should leave the EU, and the Government has obfuscated to create an illusion of a Parliamentary decision. However in reality the Notification Act 17 changed nothing. PM always had power to notify once a valid decision was made.
3. Without doubt an intention to leave the EU was birthed after the referendum which was a shock as the party canvassing for this eventuality only ever achieved 12% of votes.

A minor issue was magically blown up to centre stage overnight.
Read 15 tweets
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Ganesh Babu ⚙️
@ganeshbabudotme
(1/n) This thread is a #summary of the #book "Write it down and make it happen" by Henriette Anne Klauser

#habits #productivity #motivation #neuroplasticity
(2/n) A lot of people only have vague ideas about what they really want. They desire more money, a better job, someone to love or the chance to travel somewhere exotic.
You may have similar desires of your own. But if you want to make them a reality, you need to be precise.
3/n So rather than saying “I want money,” say, “I want exactly enough money to open a restaurant.” And when it comes to love, figure out exactly what you’re looking for. Maybe it’s someone who is funny, kind and doesn’t mind that you don’t want to have kids.
Read 30 tweets
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John Dingell
@JohnDingell
Who knew health care could be so complicated?
In 1943, my father was one of the first people to introduce comprehensive health care reform in Congress, a single-payer system for all.
He spent the decade prior fighting like hell to pass Social Security & see it signed into law. And he did. Big nose & mustache in the back.
Read 28 tweets

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