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fly4dat @fly4dat
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ $TSLA & $TSLAQ, bulls & bears, here you go: 2018 #Tesla EU (almost) final sales data.

The gist: 5% growth YoY thanks to NL, which ended tax breaks EOY. Without NL, 2018 would have been a -16% decline.

NL and NO had huge fleet sales in Q4, accounting for 3-5% of EU sales.
2/ Norway, now the 2nd largest market for $TSLA (and the largest in EU obv), had a small growth of 2%. Note that Q3 and Q4 saw accelerating declines. Without the fleet sale, NO would be down 1% YoY and down 46% QoQ in Q4.
3/ The Netherlands almost came in 1st due to tax breaks ending EOY 2018. Also had a fleet sale in Dec, but results would have been impressive even without, due to accelerating growth throughout the year. A stellar 159% growth YoY and 194% in Q4. Will be interesting to see 2019.
4/ UK is distant 3rd in Europe, down 29% YoY and down 56% in Q4.
Germany is 4th with -43% YoY and -55% in Q4.
Switzerland 5th, -28% YoY and -40% in Q4.

Germany and Switzerland haven't seen a growing Q in 2018.
5/ Data include #Tesla Model S and Model X as M3 hasn't officially been sold in EU in 2018.

Until sometime in Q3 I've used TMC data (credits due), from then I've done my own research and only reverted to TMC data for checking and for UK and Other countries figures.
6/ Yellows are estimates for December (those countries haven't reported yet), except for UK and Other countries, which are TMC estimates for the year. I believe UK figures are OK, Other countries are significant overestimates, but don't really change the big picture.
7/ An update on Model 3: order tracker stands at 14.6k, with the last 2-5 days of data still missing. I'm estimating current orders at ~15.5k, with a current quarterly run-rate of 30-35k, declining sharply. Order book is open to the general public. No MR yet.
8/ No EU homologation as of yesterday. Regardless, reportedly a few EU M3's have already been produced.
9/ EU 1812 ASP's
Audi E-TRON: €111.900
Jaguar I-Pace: €95.600
Tesla Model X: €125.200
(Tesla Model S: €106.200)

$TSLA MX costs 12% more than an E-TRON & 31% more than a Jag

'19 will show if there is a $TSLAQ premium that customers are willing to pay (or a Tesla discount...)
UPDATE: France added

$TSLA $TSLAQ
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