Thread by @VentureCoinist

Correlation between $BTC & Altcoin/BTC price is high. True historically & currently. Put simply: if $BTC is rising, most alts rise vs $BTC.

It's not that simple though.

Market cap groups (large vs mid) of alts rise at different times relative to the $BTC move. Evidence below...

2/ In the last 3 months Bitcoin found a local bottom at $3200, and has risen to $4100 twice.

While I wouldn't call either of the ~20 day swings a full cycle it does give very clear insight into how large cap vs mid cap alts react to Bitcoin rising & dropping.

3/ In the first push to 4100 Bitcoin went nearly vertical reached high in about 4 days.

-Large caps kept pace or outperformed $BTC
-Most mid caps/binance alts were sluggish, lagged $BTC and were down or flat

Compare % gain for $ETH vs 3 random mid caps during initial rise.

4/After $BTC initial push to 4100 it dropped 10%.

-Large caps dropped with $BTC, and almost at same exact time.
-Mid caps only dropped briefly and by smaller %. Then they jump higher RIGHT after large cap momentum stopped.

Compare mid cap % gain after large cap momentum stops.

5/ $BTC finds local bottom around 3400 & pushed to 4100 again last week

-Once again large caps move in sync with $BTC as it rises or outpace
-Mid caps sluggish, flat, down slightly, or atleast lagging large caps to start

See large cap line outpacing until Feb 23rd high for $BTC

6/ For a second time $BTC tops at 4100, and drops 10%.

- Same as first drop, most majors dip immediately when $BTC does or atleast stop positive momentum.
- Mid caps AGAIN drop briefly and THEN many, one at a time, start popping only after the large cap momentum stops.

7/ Bitcoin drives nearly everything in the crypto market.

It's incredibly helpful to consider the windows/timing that different groups of alts are moving to better position yourself according to how Bitcoin is moving.

8/ The two recent Bitcoin pushes to 4100 price level have given two 'micro-cycles' that you can use as a guide for alt positioning.

Takeaways:
-Large caps move first
-Large caps finding top at same time $BTC does
-Generally mid caps are slightly AFTER large caps, then outperform

9/Understanding macro alt landscape is far more important than any 1 alt chart

Having more exposure to large caps in periods large caps should outperform mid caps makes next decision of choosing specific coin to buy easier. It gives a filter

Move slow, & share thoughts below ⬇️