Thread by @jl_owen

You may have seen it, but the PAC hearing on border readiness is… so bleak.

It's clear a huge amount of work has happened over last 2 years. But also that we are woefully prepared for no deal...

A large part of that is massive failings of politicians to make decisions... 1/

In short:

- 40% of traders have no plans to prepare for no deal
- The EU fully intends to implement checks, but we don’t quite know how
- HMRC have basically just got crossed fingers on tariff policy
- Government is relying on businesses to tell them what MS are doing

On trader readiness - one of HMRCs biggest risks - the numbers with just a few weeks to go are pretty stark

1 in 5 of the target businesses have registered for the necessary EORI number (HMRC proxy for readiness)
40% have said told HMRC are saying they have no plans to prepare.

Another big risk for HMRC is what the other side will do...

The confidence of some backbenchers that EU will waive checks is not shared by the official in charge of Border Prep.

The EU will treat the UK like a third country. Some modest workarounds - but we don't know what.

That's because - with just days left - the UK and Member States are still not formally allowed to talk about how to approach no deal.

Officials on both sides are having to go through ports and private companies in a ridiculous game of Chinese whispers.

Seabourne Freight was going to be used as a sort of queue jump system for vital goods.

Government will dish out tickets to those it wants to prioritise if Dover/Channel Tunnel gets all clogged up.

On tariffs - HMRC had to start work to prepare systems weeks ago.

So we know government has some kind of decision on tariffs it's just not telling people.

Or at least, HMRC are working on what government policy WAS then. Surely there *zero* risk this govt will change its mind

Then the next big issue - Northern Ireland.

Official in charge of border readiness says that UK Govt and NI Traders won't be ready for no deal.

Main reason - Ministers won't let them tell NI Traders what will happen.

It's absolutely bonkers that with just a few weeks left, officials are responsible for delivering something that they are *not allowed* to talk to traders about.

It's a pretty depressing combination of secrecy/negligence

Then finally... CDS.

Some ministers assured us would be ready for March 2019.

Current plans are for September 2019.

So the 25 year old CHIEF system (they've already tried to replace a number of times before), if the system on which no deal customs will depend.