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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Beto is going to generate a lot of Takes and then there will be a backlash to the Takes and then a backlash to the backlash and a backlash to the backlash to the backlash and all of that is only going to generate even more Takes.
That is potentially quite a helpful dynamic if you're one of 15-20 candidates running for the nomination and trying to stand out in a crowded field. 53eig.ht/2LPAavx
Forgot to use the opportunity to re-up my own recent Beto #Take. 53eig.ht/2ER9MA0
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Did this pretty quickly so don't take as gospel, but it looks to me like 10 candidates have already qualified for the debates under the DNC's *polls* criteria: Biden, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Gillibrand, Buttigieg.
Gabbard, Inslee, Hickenlooper and Brown (if he were to resurrect his bid for some reason) already have 2 of the 3 polls they need. The fundraising threshold is probably the *easier* way to qualify (65K donors) but polls is pretty easy too. bit.ly/2UN80FJ
Yang claims he's met the donor threshold, and we have no reason to doubt him. (Although, it will be a while before the DNC officially verifies anything.)

We are not sure that any other candidates that *didn't* meet the polling threshold *have* met the donor one—but are checking.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
So, we published a discussion today about Trump's re-election chances. There's no super-snappy takeaway here but I think a lot of good conversation: 53eig.ht/2CtVBiR
Basically, this is the key for me.
Also this. For various reasons—the economy is already good, he doesn't seem to be interested in pivoting—I don't think Trump is likely to become significantly more popular (or that he's more popular than polls imply). But it's easy to imagine the Democrat being equally unpopular.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
You should look at the tipping point states rather than the closest states, which are indeed gonna be pretty similar from year to year.
I'm more anti-anti-anti-Electoral College than I am anti-Electoral College. The arguments that usually-smart people make to defend are often poor to the point where they persuade me against their position vs. if they'd said nothing at all.
Of course the real reason the Electoral College is good is because it requires people to carefully consider how error & uncertainty are correlated between different states in order to develop well-calibrated probabilistic election forecasts, a vital underpinning of our democracy.
Read 3 tweets

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Q Reader 🕵️‍♂️💥🔗🗞️
@QReader3
2020 Preseason Predictions 4 the Democrat Party Ticket. We have the “Motorcycle Dairyest” Beto O’Rourke and the “Trail of Tears” Elizabeth Warren to mention 2. But it will not matter. Obama has picked who will run in 2020 using demographics.
Why is Beto O’Rourke the Chosen one? Go back to the GOOGLE execs complaining after the 2016 elections that too many Latino voters voted for Trump. And GOOGLE paid for Get out the vote ops in the Latino communities.
I bet many Latino voters lied to the exit pollsters too and even more Latinos voted for Trump than they knew. I guess the election fraud was not enough. Also look at the Black vote and the Union vote that went to Trump. Stunning.
Read 12 tweets
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Michael wall unbuilder
@OmanReagan
The thing that's scary about #Beto isn't so much his policy, or lack of it, which is slightly upgraded neoliberalism or whatever the party wants. It's that he is so much like candidate Michael Dukakis, and Al Gore, and John Kerry, and John Edwards, and...

they all lost.
He was for it before he was against it. Eerily familiar problem.

Of course.
Read 13 tweets
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Shem Horne
@Shem_Infinite
"We’re thinking about doing, on the 4th of July or thereabouts, a parade. A "Salute to America" parade. It will be a -- really, a gathering, as opposed to a parade, I’d guess you’d have to say. Perhaps at the Lincoln Memorial. We’re looking at sites." DO IT!!!!!
" We had, by the way, a massive crowd. And my competitor had very few people, but the press didn’t report it that way. The press reported it like two speeches. We had a competitor that decided to challenge me with the crowds. And he failed very badly" #Beto 😂
"...they're telling me about the committee came out with a deal. And, you know, they went over it very briefly."

" And I can't say I'm happy. I can't say I'm thrilled. But the wall is getting built, regardless. It doesn’t matter." #BuildThatWall
Read 10 tweets
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
Beto O’Rourke, who’s pondering a 2020 presidential bid, met with Barack Obama
#WednesdayWisdom #BlueWave2020 #Beto
wapo.st/2Gc4271?tid=ss…
2-"Beto O’Rourke, weighing whether to mount a 2020 presidential bid, met recently with ­Barack Obama at his post-presidency offices in Washington.The meeting, which was held Nov. 16 at the former president’s offices in Foggy Bottom, came as former Obama aides have encouraged the
3-"Democratic House member to run, seeing him as capable of the same kind of inspirational campaign that caught fire in the 2008 presidential election.The meeting was the first sign of Obama getting personally involved in conversations with O’Rourke, who, despite his November
Read 21 tweets
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🏳️‍🌈Lisa IMPEACH NOW! 🔥🏳️‍🌈
@LisaTalmadge
Of course Sirota is worried about #beto who raised
$69 million dollars for a senate race with no PACs.
And Beto who still has $10 million on hand.
Cuts into that Bern dollar machine.
Beto v Bernie is all Sirota is concerned about. And he doesn’t like these numbers.
Bern’s PAC % is 1.58
Beto’s PAC % is .11

Naturally Sirota is worried about the erosion of his meal ticket.
Read 6 tweets
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Fiddler
@cFidd
So I saw a lot of #takes about how this reads like something an abuser says after hurting you and I thought they might have been hyperbolic but nope. wsj.com/articles/i-am-…
I'm very lucky in that I've only been in one abusive relationship, and WOW does this piece remind me of his "apologies."
Screaming at me for hours? He's sorry he had to do that but I should have called him back sooner.
wsj.com/articles/i-am-…
Literally ignore me at a party for hours then demand I leave with him the instant he was ready? I imagined that but even if he'd done it, well, I shouldn't have spent so long talking to that other guy.
wsj.com/articles/i-am-…
Read 12 tweets

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