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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So, we published a discussion today about Trump's re-election chances. There's no super-snappy takeaway here but I think a lot of good conversation: 53eig.ht/2CtVBiR
Basically, this is the key for me.
Also this. For various reasons—the economy is already good, he doesn't seem to be interested in pivoting—I don't think Trump is likely to become significantly more popular (or that he's more popular than polls imply). But it's easy to imagine the Democrat being equally unpopular.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A general theme in this polling is that the public hasn't had their priors shifted much by the Barr Memo, although that could reflect any of 3 or 4 phenomena:
1—The public's priors were fairly accurate to begin with; they didn't expect a smoking gun
2—Everyone's super partisan so LOL nothing matters
3—The public's hedging until the full Mueller Report is released
3b—(and it may not take the Report as the final word on collusion anyway)
Obviously these aren't mutually exclusive and all of them are likely in play to some degree. Overall, though, I'd dare to suggest the public has had a fairly measured and rational reaction to the Barr Memo and how much new information it provided vis-à-vis what was known before.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Part of it is that after a 3-year-long story, you'll have tens of thousands of examples to cherry-pick from. So the cherry-picks ought to be really good! (Non-opinion journalists at very high-prestige outlets repeatedly fucking up in very big ways that are central to the story.)
I also don't get why people write these maximalist polemics when they could be more compelling by being more focused. Wanna critique what's happened to left-leaning cable news? Russiagate is *great* for that. The overuse of anon sources? Russiagate gives you a lot to work with.
Ironically, the tendency by these critics to tie together a number of fairly discrete news events and coverage decisions under the rubric of the Big Hoax or the Catastrophic Media Fuck-Up reflects the same sort of paranoid style that the worst Russiagate pundits were guilty of.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yeah, maybe I was getting too cute in trying to parse things.

What the Barr letter says to me is that there's no smoking gun linking Trump to Russian efforts to interfere in 2016. At least not beyond what's known publicly (which I wouldn't consider a smoking gu..)
Beyond that, a lot of details and color are outstanding. So we have:

—Russians did try to interfere.
—No smoking gun linking Trump to it, but many details of how close he came still TK.
—Close call on whether he obstructed justice and/or Mueller didn't want to make the call.
^^^ Until the TKs are filled in, it seems crazy that you have people running around screaming it was a huge media failure. What we know *so far* is about what a well-informed news consumer would have expected, unless they were force-fed cable news punditry Clockwork Orange style.
Read 3 tweets

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