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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
, 13 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
Bad reasons for children's climate strike
#FridaysForFurture

Here is why they’re striking
➡️“Worsening climate destruction”
➡️Future “might not be there”
➡️Governments “not listening to the educated”
fridaysforfuture.org

All three reasons wrong — thread⬇️
➡️Kids striking for climate: "Worsening climate destruction"
No. Till today, because human resilience, climate 95% *less* destructive:
In 1920s, 500,000 people died per year of climate-related causes. Today, only about 20,000
(And there are 4x more people)
facebook.com/bjornlomborg/p…
➡️Kids striking for climate: "Worsening climate destruction"
No. Till today, because of human resilience, weather losses cost an ever smaller fraction of GDP
Contrary to what you hear, climate impacts are not getting worse
#FridaysForFurture
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
➡️Kids striking for climate: "Worsening climate destruction"
No, till today, because of human resilience, flood costs fraction in US not up
Similar in France sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Similar for hurricanes for US journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BA…
➡️Kids striking for climate: "Worsening climate destruction"
Yes, climate change real and happening. Some things getting worse (like more heavy precipitation)
But not "worsening climate destruction" — till today, globally fewer dead and lower fractional cost
#FridaysForFurture
➡️Kids striking for climate: Future “might not be there”
This is just silly. Climate change is a problem, not destroyer of future
Its total cost is equivalent to 2-4% GDP reduction in 2100,
Here from Nobel climate economist Nordhaus, update of IPCC
nber.org/reporter/2017n…
➡️Kids striking for climate: Future “might not be there”
In all UN scenarios, your future will be bright:
By 2100 rich kids incomes rise by 500%, poor kids by 1,500%!
Deduct 2-4% of climate damage, you will still be amazingly better off in future
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
➡️Kids striking for climate: Future “might not be there”
Worrying about 2-4% reduction in 1000% richer world is rather entitled
The bottom billions worry about life-and-death issues
That's why biggest UN survey of world's priorities said: climate at bottom
data.myworld2015.org
➡️Kids striking for climate: Governments “not listening to the educated”
While governments aren't tackling climate well (aren't tackling many issues well), they know solar & wind can't just "take over"
Smart people, like @VaclavSmil told them so
vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/upl…
➡️Kids striking for climate: Governments “not listening to the educated”
Policies of going to 0% CO₂ (@GretaThunberg) would damage welfare much more than benefit it
The world's first Nobel climate economist shows we should do something but not too much
aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
➡️Kids striking for climate: Governments “not listening to the educated”
To fix climate, dont' panic but invest in smart R&D of green energy to innovate price down below the cost of fossil fuels
Study to become the scientist making that breakthrough!
bostonglobe.com/opinion/2015/1…
➡️Kids striking for climate:
We need to cool conversation on climate
Alarmism scaring kids, creating political panic and wasting $trillions on poor policies
We owe it to future to spend limited resources to fix climate smarter + tackle all other challenges
project-syndicate.org/commentary/cli…
➡️Kids striking for climate:
Here is a video I did while visiting Stanford, on the smart solutions for climate and all the other challenges for the world
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More from @BjornLomborg see all

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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Kids striking for climate
But scared despite the data
Their solutions incredibly ineffective + costly

Solution: double down on studies to help find vaccines for malaria, tackle hunger, fight cancer, while also innovating green energy
usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
Bad reasons for children's climate strike
#FridaysForFurture

Here is why they’re striking
➡️“Worsening climate destruction”
➡️Future “might not be there”
➡️Governments “not listening to the educated”
fridaysforfuture.org

All three reasons wrong — thread⬇️
see rest of my thread with lots of data
Read 3 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
So, using a "voice of reason" on climate means I'm "fucking up" the future of kids.

You can scare kids with climate horror stories, and you're great.
But you're spreading "insidious, creeping conspiracy BS" when pointing out the UN's Climate Panel seriously disagrees
Remember, the UN Climate Panel estimates the net impact of uninterrupted climate change by the end of the century to be equivalent to an income loss of 2-4% of GDP
Here update from climate Nobel economist Nordhaus:
Problem, not catastrophe
nber.org/reporter/2017n…
Remember also that the UN Climate Panel estimated that the economic impacts of climate would be "small" compared to most other impacts from changes in "population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance" etc.
ipcc.ch/site/assets/up…
Read 4 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
And another unhinged climate scare:
"we're all going to live underwater"

Well, no.

Today, 3m flooded/year
Even with worst-case sea level rise, max population, lowest GDP

Adaptation means just 1m flooded per year in 2100
pnas.org/content/111/9/…
Here is the graphic:
Of course, anyone can scare you and tell you "oh my god, sea level rise could flood 300 million people each year"

But any sane person knows that we'll adapt, and actually reduce flooding from 3m/yr to just 1m/year

pnas.org/content/111/9/…
And of course, we should reduce flooding (and all other challenges) by avoiding the poorest of worlds and achieve the richest of worlds (where flooding is close to zero)
The richest world, according to the UN climate modeling, is the fossil fuel driven one
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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euronews
@euronews
Students across the world are marching for the #FridaysForFuture Climate March calling for action.

Students here are gathering in Perth, Australia.
#Strike4Climate

Read more here: bit.ly/2UCswJh
Students across the world are marching for the #FridaysForFuture Climate March calling for action.

Students here are gathering in Helsinki, Finland.
#Strike4Climate

Read more here: bit.ly/2UCswJh
Students across the world are marching for the #FridaysForFuture Climate March calling for action.

Students here are gathering in Delhi, India.
#Strike4Climate

Read more here: bit.ly/2UCswJh
Read 10 tweets
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Nicky Ison
@nickymison
If you were a journo or opinion editor trying to get better at reporting on #climate & #energy, what questions would you be asking?

Thread

@KetanJ0 @TennantReed @simonahac @dylanjmcconnell @craigmemery @SimonCorbell @OBenPotter @1MarijaPetkovic @miriamlyons
1/ If the article/writer claims a certain cost of acting on climate, does it also make claims about the cost of not acting on climate?
2/ If there are claims made about industry moving off shore, where will the industry go (since the majority of the world is acting on climate)?
Read 9 tweets
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Steve Faktor
@ideafaktory
While this is symbolic, it's moot, in practice.

1) Most likely, we won't need a draft. #Future wars will be automated, just like cars & romance.
2) If we had a draft, we're screwed anyway. We can't even convince kids earning $0 on Twitch to take one of the 5M unfilled, high-paying blue-collar #jobs w/free training. Our draft is just a way to fill up Canada & tear down our big beautiful Mexican wall..w/fleeing US migrants.
3) This policy is just bad math. You need women & R̶.̶ ̶K̶e̶l̶l̶y̶ Barry White tunes to make future soldiers, but only a tiny hairem of guys named Tom Brady & Jason Momoa.
Read 3 tweets
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Russian Platform
@RussiaConnects
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

It's a contradiction in terms. Pure. Evil. An evil distilled thru the years to the purest form of evil possible. Its proponents believe it is always right, always pure of motive, always correct in its actions. It is the U.S.A., purest evil on our planet.
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

It all began quite well. Another evil empire was confronted & beaten, that of the Nazis. U.S. troops were heroes as they arrived, albeit belatedly to help embattled Britain as she fought valiantly & single-handedly against the purest evil of those days.
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

WWII was the U.S.A. at her best. At home tho people were unsure whether they had anything to gain by being involved. Many said they did not. And at least 20,000 who attended a Nazi rally in New York in 1939 would have fought with the Nazis if they could.
Read 38 tweets
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Dr Kim Nicholas
@KA_Nicholas
#climate twitter! I want to donate 10% of my 2019 income where it will do the most good to reduce emissions. Would love to hear your take on the most effective orgs (in this thread or private DM). Thanks! Ping @drvox @KHayhoe @Fisher_DanaR @AmyAHarder @LeehiYona @EricHolthaus
As I replied to @EricHolthaus- I'm aware of and inspired by @givingwhatwecan & @GiveWell work on global health/poverty; I personally want to support climate mitigation. I realize there's no one right answer, depends on theory of change etc; curious to hear different perspectives.
Esp. in climate arena where impact could be on different possible levels (eg X tons avoided from cookstoves vs Y tons #fossil CO2 kept in the ground vs systemic political or economic change)- curious to hear diverse range of theory of change or evidence of effectiveness.
Read 11 tweets

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