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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
How many choices are there? I've forgotten.
Two? Two. Two choices.

Vote for May's withdrawal agreement. But then you're in the backstop customs union forever anyway. You haven't achieved anything
So you're stuck in a customs union limbo, and you've lost all your voting rights. You can't leave any further so you'll have to rejoin. And give up your currency and all your privileges from before.
All you'll have done in the end is lose all your opt outs and adopt the euro.

Or not vote for May's withdrawal agreement, and realise that leaving is not really viable
Vote to reject may's deal and stay as we are, or

Pretend to leave, and end up in the euro and Schengen when it all goes wrong
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
But what I've said on and off is that voting for May's withdrawal agreement would make Scottish independence inevitable.

Why why why? Because
Because the withdrawal agreement traps you sort of half in and half out of the European Union. And here's the point, it traps you with no legal right to exit any further.
Scotland could immediately say - would immediately say - that England has just disregarded Scotland in a demented pursuit that has damaged everyone's economy for no benefit. None to Scotland and none to itself.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
And what are the European Union meant to say?
They've nearly got you out the door, why would they ask you to stay if all you're going to do is piss about for another three months and waste everyone's time?
When Europe says what is an extension for, what they mean is, what is in it for THEM?

Theresa May has been playing stupid games for the last two years, they don't want any more of it.
Like I said at the dawn of time, Theresa May's original intention was to misuse Article 50 to scam a treaty renegotiation.
And this is where crap journalism comes into it. Crap journalism always comes into it.
Read 10 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
That's right, parliament already voted for an extension till June 30th unless they've approved a withdrawal agreement by March 20th.
So the withdrawal agreement can't come back, and tonight or tomorrow Theresa May has to request an extension till June 30th.
Then failing that I suppose offer parliament a year's extension.
Which will create havoc, but can at least be voted on before the government collapses
Theresa May can just about get a year's extension approved, and then watch her government fall apart
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Eleanor Sharpston
@akulith
1. Following two successive votes rejecting the draft withdrawal agreement (DWA) (432-202 against and 391-242 against) and this evening’s vote (321-278) to reject any no deal Brexit, here is a personal reflection/contribution on possible extensions of time under Article 50 TEU.
2. If the existing DWA ever ends up being approved, it is near-certain that the UK will have to seek a short (2-3 month) extension, in order to put in place the necessary measures to implement that agreement.
3. Since there would be obvious mutual interest in granting such an extension, it is unlikely that obtaining it in that context would present major difficulty.
Read 25 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Right - so I have now read last night's documentation: an 'instrument' relating to the WA; a 'joint statement' supplementing the PD; and a unilateral declaration by the UK Govt on the NI Protocol. They are all here: gov.uk/government/pub… 1/
There will be much debate about both the legal status of the documentation (given that there are no changes to the wording of the WA and PD), and about the intended meaning and effect of the words used. 2/
Disproportionate weight will be given to the opinions of 'legal experts'; in particular to the views of Geoffrey Cox and the ERG's 'Star Chamber'. It will soon become clear that there is no legal consensus. 3/
Read 20 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Anyway on to exciting matters....
As you can see... (source ec.europa.eu/DocsRoom/docum… for those already needing to see more)
More seriously there is a big difference in the way the UK will implement conformity assessment between a Turkey-style Customs Union and the Ireland-backstop Customs Union - detail matters in trade policy
Read 3 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On #customs formalities and documentation under various #Brexit scenarios. Procedures and documentation required for customs clearance can be confusing. Particularly, the difference between a single market and a customs union seems to be unclear. /1
Under different Brexit scenarios there will be different customs formalities and supporting documentation traders will need to complete/ provide for customs clearance (from an upcoming blogpost): /2
This is a simplified view - additional formalities are required depending on the type of goods (e.g. agricultural, excise) and other supporting documentation may be needed (e.g. licenses, certificates, value declaration, insurance docs, tariff quota docs etc). /3
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
104 pages of the #Brexit #WhitePaper reduced to 10 slides.
Especially for those concerned for @BorderIrish, @BelfastAgmt,
& with more sense than time.

@DPhinnemore & I have scrutinised the WP in light of #JointReport commitments to NI/IRL & the UK's alternative #backstop.
1/10
A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).

The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.

2/10
A reminder of where we are up to on that Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

With added stars 🌟 to identify which bits the White Paper attempts to address (or negate) most directly.

3/10
Read 11 tweets

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