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How have CO₂ emissions developed compared to previous generations of emission scenarios?
Here is an update of our earlier comparisons rdcu.be/brDGx
For fossil CO₂ emissions, we started to move onto track, but that quickly changed…
(mini-thread)
Here is an update of our earlier comparisons rdcu.be/brDGx
For fossil CO₂ emissions, we started to move onto track, but that quickly changed…
(mini-thread)
For total CO₂ emissions, including land-use change, we are much closer to the high end scenarios. This suggests we have been pretty bad at modelling land-use change moving forward...
We have not updated the AR5 scenarios for a few years (it is a bit of work to touch up with Illustrator), but emissions are certainly in the higher end. Many AR5 scenarios started climate policy in 2010, which didn't happen in reality, so a gap expected! folk.uio.no/roberan/GCP201…
With the SSPs, we are on track across most scenarios, but that is because the scenarios were just run. We expect current emissions to be in the cloud of scenarios... If you start the clock now, you are "on track" one second later! folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…
Likewise, with IPCC #SR15 scenarios, we are on track as the scenarios were just run. (And we will update this figure to be as pretty as the others one day...)
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folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…
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folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…
