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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
If there are indicative votes, they should be on:

-No deal
-2nd ref
-May’s WA + PD
-May’s WA, but with the old NI-specific backstop, with GB-wide FTA in the PD
-May’s WA, with permanent CU in the PD
-May’s WA, with permanent SM in the PD
-May’s WA, with Norway+ (SM+CU) in the PD
Anything else, I think, is a unicorn.
Revised list of suggested indicative vote options:

-No deal
-2nd ref
-Revoke
-May’s WA + PD
-May's WA, no PD
-May’s WA, old NI-specific backstop, GB-wide FTA in PD
-May’s WA, permanent CU in the PD
-May’s WA, permanent SM in the PD
-May’s WA, Norway+ (SM & CU) in the PD
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More from @Raphael_Hogarth see all

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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
The Institute for Government celebrates its 10th b'day today.

I've been involved for 2.5y, but feel like my attachment is older, because I was citing the work of future colleagues in my undergrad essays.

Following @jillongovt's example, here's some of the IfG work I'm proud of.
The first thing I did for the IfG urged Parliament and the Government to give the courts a clearer steer about the role of the ECJ in the UK after after Brexit. The EU (Withdrawal) Act was subsequently amended to do just that.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/b…
Then I contributed to this rather caustic diagnosis of problems with infrastructure decision making in the UK - the IfG's subsequent work on infrastructure, expertly led by @GrahamTAtkins and @NJ_Davies, has been fascinating and hugely influential.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/w…
Read 11 tweets
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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
Is @michaelgove nursing a plan to keep the UK in the EEA? "I will ensure that we are out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the Court, out of the Commission, out of the Parliament," he said today. No repeat of his 2016 pledge to "end free movement and bring numbers down".
@michaelgove He also promised a free trade agreement, of course. But he's a smart enough man, with smart enough Brexit wonks working for him, to know that he's not getting that without the backstop and a border in the Irish Sea. So it's interesting to see where he is drawing his red lines...
@michaelgove I'm told I've read too much into a speech with no autocue, and reminded that he also pledged to take back control of money, borders, laws.

I'm sure he'll be given opportunities soon enough to rule out EEA/free mvt unequivocally if he wants to. And/or, for that matter, Chequers.
Read 3 tweets
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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
I think assessment of Theresa May's premiership depends on the frame of the question. As PM, terrible. As PM *trying to deliver Brexit*, bad. As *Tory* PM trying to deliver Brexit, moderately bad. As *Remainer Tory* PM trying to deliver Brexit, bad-ish.
Which frame is appropriate depends on the critic. If the critic is a Labour Remainer, you wouldn't expect them to make allowances for the fact that she had to keep the party onside and had to deliver Brexit. If the critic is a Tory Remainer-turned-Brexiteer (like her), you would.
I suppose my sub-text here is: it's fair to criticise her for a lot, but it's not fair for Brexiteers to criticise her for things that are inevitable consequences of Brexit (e.g., failing to get the EU to make any meaningful concessions and accepting terms).
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
I've not done any #Brexit #border slides for a while.
Here's an effort to outline in as simple a way as possible what each of the main scenarios would mean for movement of goods across the UK's land & sea borders.
1/5
 [DM me with an email address if you need a grayscale version]
In a Transition Period, following the #WithdrawalAgreement, the movement of goods between the UK and EU remains free flowing.
During this time, the negotiations on the future UK-EU trade agreement will be underway.
2/5
If at the end of the Transition Period, there is no UK-EU FTA close enough to avoid a hard Irish border, the backstop will kick-in on a temporary basis.
It has both NI-specific and UK-wide dimensions to minimise controls needed across UK land & sea borders.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD

If parliament backs a customs union in the indicative votes, why shouldn’t it back May’s Withdrawal Agreement?

First, let’s be clear: the backstop is a misleading name. In the absence of any known alternative, it isn’t a fall-back but rather the default.

(1/11)
Given the absence of alternatives for the Irish border, and the fact that the withdrawal agreement has no mechanism for exit and allows only for a one-time extension of the standstill transition, the backstop must be assessed as the future destination (see Robbins, O.)

(2/11)
But for advocates of a soft Brexit—including the Labour party—why should this matter?

The problem is the lack of control—too little attention has been paid to the risks of being within a customs union without a say.

(3/11)
Read 12 tweets
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Anton Muscatelli
@UofGVC
As we approach the latest round of ‘decisions’ (sic) on Brexit by House of Commons., some thoughts on the odds of various scenarios.
1.
First of all, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Brussels cannot and will not offer a unilateral exit from the NI element of the backstop. A time-limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. Hence @MichelBarnier latest thread sets out how far the EU might go on this
2.
The UK had requested a more complex backstop incorporating a customs arrangement with the UK in the negotiations, rather than a NI specific backstop. This was a big achievement by UK negotiators. The EU had resisted it.
But the ERG rebuffed the PM because they don’t want...
3.
Read 14 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Here’s a brief take on the leaked letter from Theresa May to the DUP courtesy of the @SamCoatesTimes story.
The opening is a bit confusing: “A Brussels plan to put a customs border in the Irish Sea if there is no Brexit agreement will be included in a divorce deal”.
The idea of a No Brexit Agreement usually means No Divorce Deal, so it sounds contradictory: ie, if there’s no divorce deal we’ll have this in the divorce deal.
Read 25 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Main takeaway from @theresa_may Commons statement:
Lots of conciliatory words about the EU "working with us to respond to the very real concerns we had on their original [draft] proposals," and tributes to both teams of negotiators...
Also, May is conciliatory on need for backstop: "Both the UK + EU share a profound responsibility to ensure the preservation of the GFA, protecting the hard won peace and stability in NI, and ensuring that life continues essentially as it does now...."
May again says the future FTA "should provide for solutions to the unique circumstances in NI, in the long term." The backstop might be needed, however, if there's a gap between the FTA beginning and the transition ending.
Read 15 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
104 pages of the #Brexit #WhitePaper reduced to 10 slides.
Especially for those concerned for @BorderIrish, @BelfastAgmt,
& with more sense than time.

@DPhinnemore & I have scrutinised the WP in light of #JointReport commitments to NI/IRL & the UK's alternative #backstop.
1/10
A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).

The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.

2/10
A reminder of where we are up to on that Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.

With added stars 🌟 to identify which bits the White Paper attempts to address (or negate) most directly.

3/10
Read 11 tweets

Trending hashtags

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