, 20 tweets, 24 min read Read on Twitter
After almost 5 years of fight, #ISIS "caliphate" has been eliminated from de map. Many actors have contributed in the liberation of an 300000 Km^2 zone between Syria & Irak : (1)
- #ISF / #PMU : 150214 km^2 (52 %) [#Coalition & #IAF]
- #SAA : 81950 Km^2 (28 %) [#RuAF, #IRGC & #PMU]
- #SDF : 44054 Km^2 (15 %) [#Coalition]
- #FSA /#TFSA : 8866 Km^2 (3,2 %) [#Coalition & #TSK]
- #KF : 4687 Km^2 (1,6 %) [#Coalition]
- #LAF : 350 Km^2 (0,2 %) [#RuAF & #LAF]
With the end of #ISIS "caliphate" the terrorist fight enter in a new phase in #Syria.
After loose control of the villages & towns militants will increase their presence as sleeper cells around the country as we see in #Irak. Nowadays many areas still have #ISIS presence: (3)
#SAA restarted combing operations (red & orange) W. #Euphrates where #ISIS still have big presence (black: important presence & gray: light presence) in a desert area from #DeirEzzor until #Suwayda provinces. Despite numerous operations #ISIS still attacking army positions (4)
With #CizireStorm operation finished #SDF will start a big combing operations E. #Euphrates part where #ISIS launched many attacks during last months.
Operation will have several stages :
- Euphrates river
- Khabur river
- #Hasakah / #Raqqa / Tel Abiad
- Ayn Issa / #Manbij
With #ISIS defeat #US will partially withdraw their forces from #Syria to #Irak . This will make #SDF - Syrian government negotiations more complicated & situation couldn't change during months (6)
Despite multiple reports about spring offensive in #Idlib status quo remains in the province with daily shelling & clashes in the front.
#HTS gets stronger everyday, imposing it's influence over the remaining groups. Nothing will happen before end April (Astana) (7)
[Current map]
During the next 3 months @Suriyakmaps will reduce twitter activities & will focus in Libyan - Yemen developments : (8)
With #Hudaydah ceasefire , #YSF focus in Northern fronts in order to secure border with Saudi Arabia. However results of the campaign during last 4 months aren't significants: (9)
- #Hajjah : #Houthis broke the almost-siege of Harad town which makes a big blown for #YSF
Then Hajur tribes uprising gives #YSF a new oportunnity to get control over most of #Hajjah. Despite heavy air support tribal forces couldn't hold their gains & uprising were stifled (10)
- #Sadah :
- #YSF advance in Baqim district continue very slowly due to abrupt terrain & heavy #Houthi resistance
- #YSF made good progress in kitaf front securing road to Buqa town which is an important supply route for their forces in Abū Jubārah valley. (11)
-#Jawf :
- #YSF made advances in Dahl area & N.E. Hazm while #Houthis made some advances in Maton front & repelled several attacks towards their porsitions in Sabrayn (12)
- #Marib : #Houthis captured some positions in Sirwan front
- #Dahel : #YSF took control over positions around Damt town & some positions in Qatabah front (13)
#Libya : 3 months after Southern operation started made signinficant developments in the country #LNA managed to capture all oilfields, secure border with Algeria & enter in most of important localities, sometimes with agreement with local groups & others through combats (14)
However, South #Libya still not secured & operations has been slowed as #LNA was replaced mostly by military police & local tribes. Operation to secure border with Niger & Chad & to comb the desert around will take some time but are ongoing (15) [Current map]
The main reason for the redeployment of #LNA from South is the upcoming campaign N.W. #Libya in order to control the rest of the country, including the capital. Operation will have aproximate 4 stages wher will see political agreements & fierce combats : (16)
1. Secure border with #Tunisia : In this operation #LNA targets will be Wazin & Ras Ajdir border crossings, & the towns of Nalut, Jadu, Zuwarah, Sabratha, Zawiyah & Sorman it's expected troops will enter in the majority of this areas due to local support of #LNA by civilians (17)
2. Sirte : Many reinforcements arrived to Jufra Airbase & during last weeks #LNA have taken positions around the city. #GNA reinforcements arrived from Misrata due to this movements; which means it won't be easy to enter in #Sirte (18)
3. Bani Walid : #LNA wants to enter in this town as first step to advance towards #Misrata & #Tripoli later. Also this movement could divert #GNA forces from other fronts & force many localities (specially Gharyan, Mezdah & Yafran) to reach an agreement without fire a bullet (19)
4. #Tripoli-#Khoms-#Misrata : It will be the last battle & the bloodiest of the war beacuse huge urban area of the cities. This is why can be cancelled due to political pressure in order to reach a peacefull agreeement.
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