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1/ Regarding Tesla European sales.
IEV figures are bogus. Even if there were 27,000 orders, that would do NOTHING with figures from the (main) European tracker. That very tracker starts with this:
IEV figures are bogus. Even if there were 27,000 orders, that would do NOTHING with figures from the (main) European tracker. That very tracker starts with this:
2/ The tracker was only useful until 1/30 when it became unusable (for # of orders estimates) because it was based on invoice #'s. When Tesla started to issue final invoices, corrections, etc, invoice #'s have instantly lost their significance.
3/ The only ways the invocie # method was to underestimate orders are
a) more cars on a single invoice (fleet/leasing sale)
b) a rapid uptick b/w the last invoice and 1/30
c) sales outside of those invoice books (reverts to a) )
a) more cars on a single invoice (fleet/leasing sale)
b) a rapid uptick b/w the last invoice and 1/30
c) sales outside of those invoice books (reverts to a) )
4/ While a) is possible, I'd rule out significant fleet sales as M3 LR AWD/Perf are no good fleet vehicles. For companies they are still too expensive outside the C-suite, and for C employees they are too small. For rental cos these are not base models.
5/ Leasing inflating #'s is possible if they order in batches, but I haven't found any evidence of any significant amount of such.
6/ Further evidence of $TSLA having ran out of orders is that up until last week M3's were available for order w/ delivery in March, confirmed by the website and customer reports (order to delivery in 5-6 days)
7/ Shipping capacities also limited possible Q1 sales.
8/ Some argued that orders were in fact *less* than what I estimated from the trackers. I've outlined why I don't think that's happened or is material:
9/ Although I'm starting to believe that other ways like corrective invoices and/or winter tires could somewhat inflate figures, I don't think they are very much less.
10/ Norway is set to see 5-5.5k M3 deliveries this Q (compared to 6.3-6.4k estimated orders), other countries like the Netherlands and Spain are behind.
11/ The Netherlands stood at 1,029 deliveries as of yesterday (or 59% of estimated orders delivered) and Spain stood at 433 (66%), with slow progress. But we've seen 600+ deliveries in a single day after Christmas last year, so not impossible to catch up, I find it unlikely.
12/ This questions my estimates. If orders are in fact less, I think they are within 15%, so at least 17-18k. I don't think it makes any difference if it's 17k or 21.5k.
13/ So I still think there are 21-21.5k orders for M3 in Europe. In most countries I expect mostly all orders to be delivered this Q, with a few (like NO) having some left for April.
14/ There are no more ships (that we know) scheduled for Europe, so those who don't get their cars in March (with the few exceptions with early April delivery) will only get theirs in May. But I doubt there would be any of these who ordered before last week.
15/ FWIW I'm estimating 14,400 M3's having been delivered by EOB yesterday (or today for US volks; it's after midnight in EU). EOQ push is yet to be seen, but I'm expecting another 3-5k delivered this month.
16/ My estimate above is based on extrapolation from Norway, the Netherlands and Spain, of which we have daily or almost realtime data, and anecdotal forum posts. I obviously don't have access to the systems of local DMV's of EU member states.
17/ We'll see exact data from many countries, including the most important ones next Monday and/or Tuesday. There are no temp tags in EU (for this purpose) so it's almost completely transparent. Likely to coincide with Tesla's official announcement.
18/ I still think European Q1 M3 order #'s are 21-21.5k, there is an outside possibility of them being less down to 17k. Again, it doesn't matter.
As a short, 3 months ago I would have been happy to see anything less than 50k, let alone 30k. I'm now sure it's much less.
As a short, 3 months ago I would have been happy to see anything less than 50k, let alone 30k. I'm now sure it's much less.
