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British Social Attitudes Survey author Prof John Curtice: its results, corroborated by polls “is enough to raise doubts about whether, two and half years after the original ballot, leaving the EU necessarily continues to represent the view of a majority of the British public” 
hasn’t been a single poll in almost a year now with Leave lead. 70 polls since GE17 show only two (+1) leads, 5 Ties, 63 Remain leads, recent avg plus 7/8 remain.
Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/Leave
Via @britainelects
Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/Leave
Via @britainelects
Eg compare the year before GE2017 with past year:
My theory is that GE2017 precipitated a structural fall in polled support for Brexit/ rise for Remain - reflecting changing electorate, and the fact that Brexit had become inextricably linked with perceptions of the May Government’s competence.
I pondered this 2 years ago:
Between 2015 & 17, pollsters weighted polls to vote share of GE15 - a majority for Con+UKIP
Since GE17 there is a majority in vote share terms for LAB+LIB+GREEN+SNP+PC
But pollsters say weighting doesn’t work like that now
Between 2015 & 17, pollsters weighted polls to vote share of GE15 - a majority for Con+UKIP
Since GE17 there is a majority in vote share terms for LAB+LIB+GREEN+SNP+PC
But pollsters say weighting doesn’t work like that now
In the final month of the 2016 referendum campaign there were 43 polls.
21 for Leave
19 for Remain
3 Tie.
21 for Leave
19 for Remain
3 Tie.
