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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
EU ambassadors meeting in Brussels today discussed what their new negotiating demands will be if UK asks to reopen talks after a no deal Brexit. Top of their list: UK must 'fulfil its commitments under the GFA' [accept the backstop] and 'honour its debts' [pay the divorce bill].
Remember EU's contingency measures covering areas like aviation, haulage and customs are unilateral and most only last for 6-12 months. So the presumption here is UK would have to come back 'pretty soon' asking for them to be rolled over or for new mini deals to help its economy.
Ambassadors were concerned this could present a new threat to EU unity so wanted to strike a common position early. Decision making on extension has been handed over to leaders' chief advisors in national capitals, demonstrating it is now a wholly political rather than issue.
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
EU agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan says last year the bloc had a 25bn euro trading surplus with the UK in agricultural products alone. That's higher than its entire surplus for trade in all products with the rest of the world, which was 21bn.
2 ways of looking at this. Yes it does show huge importance of UK as market for EU goods. But that dependence runs in other direction too. And it demonstrates how commerce with the rest of the world is still a drop in the ocean compared to trade with nearest neighbours in Europe.
EU official: 'UK is hugely reliant on imports from EU & for particular products eg fruits & veg. There's no alternative ready source so there's an interest in ensuring this trade can continue.' Eg Spain exports 3bn a yr fruit & veg. 90% of UK mushrooms come from Ireland & Poland.
Read 4 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
EU ambassadors met today to discuss options for an extension. Germany & Netherlands were open to Tusk idea of year-long delay. But France, Spain & Belgium were 'very hard' & argued May hasn't done enough to justify one. They floated 2 week delay to prepare markets for crash out.
Balance of probabilities still favours 'flextension' of somewhere between 8-12 months when EU27 leaders get together next Weds. But France in particular will demand very concrete political commitments from UK that it won't use a delay to interfere in decisions about EU's future.
Idea of long extension is to pack UK 'off to garden shed' for few months to get head straight & sort out internal political crisis in hope May (or another PM) will be able to come back at end of year with better idea of what it wants. Also takes Brexit off EU agenda for a while.
Read 4 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
EU finance commissioner Pierre Moscovici: 'If there is a no deal Brexit the UK will become a third country from one day to the next. This will be an immediate legal change by definition, a radical one and obviously a very substantial one for the UK, our MS and our businesses.'
Moscovici: 'If there’s a no deal scenario new customs controls will have to be introduced. At the moment these goods move without any customs formalities or checks. There will be full application of the customs code as soon as the UK leaves - this is a firm and clear line.'
Moscovici says customs checks on goods travelling between UK and EU will be 'on the basis of a risk analysis'. But he warns: 'I’d prefer rigorous checks and a few tailbacks of lorries rather than a health crisis or the risk of trafficking.'
Read 5 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders PM speaking to today have little expectation of a breakthrough in the cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn ahead of emergency #Brexit summit on Wednesday /1
EU leaders think it good idea to be in contact already now. PM doesn't have a good track record of performing 'on the night' at summits. She just spoke to Dutch PM Rutte. They'll talk again Weds morning before summit starts. Translation: No room for any more misunderstandings /2
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Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
“Is the British political system still strong enough to signal to European leaders what they want?... That is an open question.”

What does the EU think about extending Brexit?

gu.com/p/b6775/stw
Nobody likes the idea of a long extension, but it’s still seen by most member states as the least-worst option. (Despite recent talk on no-deal ‘we are ready’).
Will Emmanuel Macron (or any EU leader) block a Brexit extension?

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: Right. Will there, or will there not be a border in Northern Ireland in the event of a 'no deal' #brexit?

Today HMRC is holding conversations with NI business groups on what happens. I have copy of the talking points handed out. What do we learn? 1/Thread
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gov.uk/guidance/eu-ex…
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) Pres Juncker just said on #Brexit "Don't force me to speculate, let me do what I can" (original in French: "laissez moi faire")
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