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“Is the British political system still strong enough to signal to European leaders what they want?... That is an open question.”
What does the EU think about extending Brexit?
gu.com/p/b6775/stw
What does the EU think about extending Brexit?
gu.com/p/b6775/stw
Nobody likes the idea of a long extension, but it’s still seen by most member states as the least-worst option. (Despite recent talk on no-deal ‘we are ready’).
Will Emmanuel Macron (or any EU leader) block a Brexit extension?
Macron has said extension cannot be taken for granted and the UK will need “a credible alternative plan backed by a majority”.
Macron has said extension cannot be taken for granted and the UK will need “a credible alternative plan backed by a majority”.
EU officials think the UK could get an extension with a pretty weak excuse *as long as* it signs up to terms and conditions - European elections and more.
But, but, but..
But, but, but..
EU insiders also worry that the PM may not be capable of i. coming up with a plan that isn’t going to unravel in 5 minutes ii. Asking for an extension in the first place - b/c her cabinet and party will refuse a long delay to Brexit and taking part in the European elections.
EU will not force extension. Martin Selmayr held up a copy of the Guardian’s “No. No. No.No.No.No.No.No” front page at recent EU ambassadors' meeting to make point more time might be needed, but.... 
Selmayr said the UK had to decide for itself on extension. He said the EU could not force a long extension to think through those rejected options.
Back to that extension, then.
How long? Maybe 9,12 or 21 months, but nobody knows. There is no default position. EU leaders will have to take the decision and lately they have a habit of coming up with their own plan, not the pre-cooked version.
How long? Maybe 9,12 or 21 months, but nobody knows. There is no default position. EU leaders will have to take the decision and lately they have a habit of coming up with their own plan, not the pre-cooked version.
Most in the EU institutions loathe the idea of a 21-month extension. They fear v long extension could destroy the EU from the inside/pollute EU, if obstreperous Brit gov takes EU business hostage to Brexit, esp 7-year budget and top jobs.
So that’s why the extension (if there is one) will have T & Cs
1 agreement not to block the things EU27 cares about (although ultimately unenforceable).
2 carrying on as member state with budget payments and elections.
1 agreement not to block the things EU27 cares about (although ultimately unenforceable).
2 carrying on as member state with budget payments and elections.
So what happens now?
EU wants Theresa May to reveal her plan this Friday, by Monday at latest. This would allow EU process machine to respond i.e. EU affairs ministers Tues and summit on Wed evening from 6 pm.
(Sorry @johncrace and football fans).
EU wants Theresa May to reveal her plan this Friday, by Monday at latest. This would allow EU process machine to respond i.e. EU affairs ministers Tues and summit on Wed evening from 6 pm.
(Sorry @johncrace and football fans).
EU decision on UK’s Brexit fate should be known around 48 hours before time runs out. ⏰ But EU side maintain all depends on 🇬🇧 choices. If PM said she wanted no-deal “we wouldn’t be able to stop her jumping off the cliff.”
