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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 28 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
Right. I've now read this brilliantly useful report by @UKandEU, @anandMenon1 and a star-studded cast.

Article 50 two years on: ukandeu.ac.uk/research-paper…

Here’s the chapters list. Each is only 2 pages (a miracle in itself)

Some extracts from the chapters follow in this thread👇🏾: Screenshot of table of contents
1/27 What happened? The negotiations
2/27 What happened? The Withdrawal Agreement
3/27 What happened? Public opinion
4/27 What happened? Parliament
5/27 What happened? Politics in the EU
6/27 What happened? The economy
7/27 What happened? The law
8/27 What now? Public opinion
9/27 What now? Parliament
10/27 What now? Politics in the UK
11/27 What now? Politics in the EU
12/27 What now? The economy
13/27 What now? The constitution
14/27 What next for politics and the economy? Political and social divisions
15/27 What next for politics and the economy? Party politics
16/27 What next for politics and the economy? Economics
17/27 What next for politics and the economy? Trade
18/27 What next for politics and the economy? Immigration and the labour force
19/27 What next for the union? Devolution
20/27 What next for the union? Northern Ireland
21/27 What next for the union? England (apologies for the page-break)
22/27 What next for the union? UK regions
23/27 What next for the UK and the EU? The expert view
24/27 What next for the UK and the EU? The law
25/27 What next for the UK and the EU? Brexit and democracy
26/27 What next for the UK and the EU? The future of the EU
27/27 What next for the UK and the EU? The UK’s place in the world
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
RT-ing this👇🏾from January, since "leaving on WTO terms is just fine" is back on the agenda.

With linked analysis, data, comment from @rjbarfield1, @UKTradeForum, @wto, @commonslibrary, @anandMenon1,@uk_tpo, @UKandEU, @SamuelMarcLowe, as well as mine

1/9
The idea that leaving the EU on WTO terms alone will only have a minor impact on the UK is just wishful thinking.

@DmitryOpines has also written and spoken a lot about this.

For example: explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/…

2/9
Or you can watch @DmitryOpines in this 5-minute video from a couple of days ago

3/9
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
A reminder.

"Let's go WTO" doesn't mean what people think it means.

1/4 Image of WTO building, with WTO text logo. Text says: 'GO WTO OMC'?
The UK is already a WTO member.

2/4 Image of WTO front gatepost with WTO OMC text logo. Text says
And as a WTO member, the UK is already bound by WTO rules.

That means the UK is ALREADY "going WTO"

3/4 Image of lakeside wall of the WTO, with text logo for WTO-OMC. Text says
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Finally, over a month after some of us pointed it out (in my case on the deal with Switzerland), this is getting proper attention. Those rolled over free trade agreements are not what @LiamFox and @tradegovuk are claiming. Thanks @BenChu_ and @uk_tpo
I tried to point this👆🏾 out by email to @guardian & @RJPartington after they published this👇🏾 story a week ago. No reply.

Let's hope they take note now. There's far too much false information about Brexit. What's needed is policies based on facts.

theguardian.com/business/2019/…
In case anyone is wondering, here's how the Swiss govt itself has explained the Swiss-UK deal, with clear differences between the Withdrawal Agreement's transition (the UK treated as if it was still an EU member) and "no deal" or after the transition.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
Hot off the press. The latest version of our Brexit Endgame report by @DrAlanWager @jasimsoncaird and @matt_bevington Tells us all you need to know about the possibly parliamentary processes to come. ukandeu.ac.uk/research-paper… (1)
First and foremost, whatever happens today will have no legal consequences for Brexit, though obviously it is politically significant if the motion doesn't pass and/or the Soubry/Umunna amendment passes. (2)
Either way, attention will soon turn to the last week of February, when the real action will take place. At which point, the main, credible options facing parliament now are to approve the deal, hold indicative votes on the future relationship or extend Article 50. (3)
Read 16 tweets
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Prof Tanja Bueltmann
@cliodiaspora
The garbage I have gotten since I tweeted this, here and via email etc, is remarkable. But what I find upsetting is the fact that so many British people clearly didn’t know this is what EU27 citizens are faced with. One problem is the constant casting of settled status 1/
as a registration process in UK media. It is not:
▪️It is an *application* process.
▪️There is nothing automatic about it.
▪️It is not a case of “filling in a form”.
▪️There will be a criminal records check for adults.
▪️Children 10+ years will be matched against watchlists. 2/
▪️The application can be done via an app... *if* you happen to own an Android phone.
▪️We do not yet know details on other application routes, but they will involve traditional ID-checking, so all without Android phone will prob have to send their passport to Home Office. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
interesting piece of reframing: extending transition as a concession to DUP
As the piece notes in the final paras, this extension is needed in any case, to allow enough time to negotiate the future relationship
We might also muse on the irony of the purest of all non-membership models being the path to keeping people on-board w Brexit
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
So what's happening in UK trade policy, beyond Brexit? A thread round-up. Starting with what DIT has as their main focus, the consultations on trade agreements with US, Australia, NZ, and joining CPTPP. 1/ gov.uk/government/new…
Many people including me have asked if there is some big picture reasoning behind this choice. Probably not yet, but apparently these questions are now being asked inside Gov, and we see stories like this on visas 2/ ft.com/content/e585ee…
There appear to be a number of tensions within Government - in particular one often hears reports and rumours of tensions between DexEU and DIT on one side, and departments like Treasury and Foreign Office on the other 3/
Read 11 tweets
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Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
So, as you may have seen, the @UKandEU report on a #NoDeal Brexit is out today. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… And whilst, obvs, most of you are already immersed in it, thought I'd attempt q quick summary for the lazy people (1)
We try to explain what No Deal means. There is a tendency to elide it with 'trading on WTO terms'. Which, of course, would be possible with a withdrawal agreement. We also make clear the crucial point that, unlike with most 'deals.' default outcome is not the status quo. (2)
We deliberately pick the worst case. Where we leave with no deal at all. Which, as we point out, we do not think is by any manner of means the most likely outcome. That being said, however, we argue that, in the event of a no deal, mitigations will be hard (3)
Read 25 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Right. Decent seat, and all set for some live-tweeting from #NIBrexit
A reminder that the programme is here: ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-a… and live-streaming is here: facebook.com/TheUKinaChangi…
You'll also want the @UKandEU report that goes with all this: ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-and-ireland…
Read 111 tweets

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