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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 5 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Finally, over a month after some of us pointed it out (in my case on the deal with Switzerland), this is getting proper attention. Those rolled over free trade agreements are not what @LiamFox and @tradegovuk are claiming. Thanks @BenChu_ and @uk_tpo
I tried to point this👆🏾 out by email to @guardian & @RJPartington after they published this👇🏾 story a week ago. No reply.

Let's hope they take note now. There's far too much false information about Brexit. What's needed is policies based on facts.

theguardian.com/business/2019/…
In case anyone is wondering, here's how the Swiss govt itself has explained the Swiss-UK deal, with clear differences between the Withdrawal Agreement's transition (the UK treated as if it was still an EU member) and "no deal" or after the transition.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
Finally, a 2-tweet thread on what @tradegovuk has told Parliament.

(Still enjoying "disapplied")

P.S. @uk_tpo has now published its findings. "The UK’s Continuity Trade Agreements: Is the roll-over complete?" Short answer: "no"

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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
RT-ing this👇🏾from January, since "leaving on WTO terms is just fine" is back on the agenda.

With linked analysis, data, comment from @rjbarfield1, @UKTradeForum, @wto, @commonslibrary, @anandMenon1,@uk_tpo, @UKandEU, @SamuelMarcLowe, as well as mine

1/9
The idea that leaving the EU on WTO terms alone will only have a minor impact on the UK is just wishful thinking.

@DmitryOpines has also written and spoken a lot about this.

For example: explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/…

2/9
Or you can watch @DmitryOpines in this 5-minute video from a couple of days ago

3/9
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
A reminder.

"Let's go WTO" doesn't mean what people think it means.

1/4 Image of WTO building, with WTO text logo. Text says: 'GO WTO OMC'?
The UK is already a WTO member.

2/4 Image of WTO front gatepost with WTO OMC text logo. Text says
And as a WTO member, the UK is already bound by WTO rules.

That means the UK is ALREADY "going WTO"

3/4 Image of lakeside wall of the WTO, with text logo for WTO-OMC. Text says
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Quite a heated debate now over the statutory instrument changing the "exit date" in UK law so it aligns with the actual exit date under EU law. Is this the release of suppressed mischief that was bubbling under the indicative votes debate
It's taken some listening to a very long speech, but it seems William Cash is challenge the legality of the proposal to have two exit dates
I give up. Switching to people cuddling sharks
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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International Trade Committee
@CommonsIntTrade
Our session with @LiamFox has now started. Keep an eye on our twitter page for updates and watch live here: goo.gl/hKxVwX
.@LiamFox: It’s not in anyone’s interest to have no deal …. It would undoubtedly cause economic disruption. #trade #Brexit
.@nigelmp asks: Can you give a guarantee that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March?
@LiamFox: The Prime Minister made clear to the Cabinet yesterday that the focus is on leaving on 29 March.
Read 8 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Trade with the EU is just under half our international trade. Leavers hold up that statistic to claim it means there’s more opportunity for trade with the rest of the world than the EU. But the important stat is how much of our trade is covered by free trade agreements: 60%.
(48% with the EU, 12% with non-EU countries via our EU membership.)

What that means is that, if we fail to come to terms on a new trade deal with the EU (which negotiates as a block) there’s a gaping 48% of our trade that suddenly falls outside free trade deals. That’s massive.
Even if every non-EU country we have trade deals via the EU with agrees to new bilateral deals, that’s only 12% ie 1/5th of the way towards replicating the status quo.

Opposite scenario is survivable: EU deal, but no non-EU rollover. But no EU free trade is economic apocalypse.
Read 4 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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Josh De Lyon
@joshdelyon
FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND BREXIT (thread):

Membership of the EU Customs Union prevents countries from agreeing their own trade agreements. Instead, the EU negotiates trade agreements on behalf of its member countries, which must be ratified by each state. /1
If the UK leaves the Customs Union, it will be free to negotiate its own trade agreements.

A number of studies have estimated the gains from trade agreements with third countries. The expected effects are small relative to the fall in trade from leaving the EU. /2
The Government analysis leaked by @BuzzFeedUK predicts that a new trade deal with USA would add 0.2% to long run GDP compared with a Brexit cost to GDP of up to 8%.

A @CEP_LSE paper by @swatdhingraLSE @johnvanreenen & co-authors finds similar results cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/… /3
Read 10 tweets
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Chris Leslie
@ChrisLeslieMP
If Britain’s leaving the EU, we’ve surely GOT TO know what the replacement trade deal looks like - so we know where we’re heading? Trouble is, this Government’s ‘implementation’ phase is woeful. Putting a plank on the cliff edge doesn’t make the fall easier. #transition #Brexit
Britain really should settle the new trading partnership before ‘exit day’, because leaving without any guarantees expands uncertainty for business & undermines economy. Why are Ministers sanguine about allowing just 6 months to negotiate future relationship? #transition #Brexit
Some hard Brexiteers actively want to dive off the cliff into ‘no deal’. But to see others only now realise that exit in March 2019 inevitably means the UK will be a rule-taker subject to existing EU rules reinforces how little they thought this process through before referendum
Read 6 tweets

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