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Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
interesting piece of reframing: extending transition as a concession to DUP
As the piece notes in the final paras, this extension is needed in any case, to allow enough time to negotiate the future relationship
We might also muse on the irony of the purest of all non-membership models being the path to keeping people on-board w Brexit
Reaffirms the mantra that 'nothing has changed' reveals more than it might appear to
At same time, any extension of transition logically means more time to find an alternative to the backstop, so it's got that going for it.
Thank goodness there are no issues with transition

Oh

ukandeu.ac.uk/research-paper…
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A quick run-through of how the EU has dealt with non-approval of treaties, just, you know, in case:

1/
I'll start by noting this very useful book by @dermot_hodson and Imelda Maher, who are very much worth reading on this

2/
In short, the EU doesn't like re-opening texts, so failures to approve result in efforts to give the non-approver enough political space to accept the same legal text

3/
Read 19 tweets
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For all your keen types who didn't take this week off too, a couple of things to keep in mind over the weekend:

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Next week is the return of Parliament (and all those holidaying people, bah), so Sunday is going to give an early indicator of who's out to make the running on the Meaning Vote

2/
On gvt side, how senior a figure gets wheeled out to make the case for? Probably not the top level (save them for next w/e), but can they find someone with an air of genuine enthusiasm for it all?

3/
Read 9 tweets
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Right, a bit early for this sort of thing, but let's try to gather ourselves as 2019 kicks off with an update on what been happening in Brexit-land over the break:

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You'll recall that pre-Xmas the talk was all about UK ratification of the Withdrawal Agt and May's huge problems therewith

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You'll also recall that a major issue was with the time: to wit, there isn't much

May's gambit in delaying the Meaningful Vote seemed only to make sense in pushing the rhetoric of her deal or no-deal: vote late, so there's no time for alternatives

3/
Read 27 tweets

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FYI, as soon as we pass Brexit Day (currently 29 March 2019, 11pm UK time) we're OUT of the EU. And once we're out, Brexit is irreversible. Also, we will have lost all our treaties.
1) During a transition period, we're already out.
2) During a backstop period, we're already out.
So while both an Article 50 extension and a longer transition period would give us more time to negotiate our future relationships with the EU and other countries, ONLY the A50 extension keeps us inside the EU. By TP time it's too late. We're gone, finito, game over!
Now, the transition period or backstopped period may shield us from the worst immediate effects of leaving the EU, but the cliff edge doesn't go away, it just moves. We still have no treaties and no trade agreements left. We just have longer to renegotiate everything.
Read 6 tweets
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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets
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1) ⏰ NXIVM CASE UPDATE: ⏰

Sept. 7, 11 & 12 NEW court docs surface, detailing where they are at in the case, U.S. wanting “complex case” designation, how many terabytes they have on them, and Clare Bronfman wants access to her #NXIVM friends because she's lonely & stressed.🙄
2) In case you aren’t terribly familiar with this case, this is a great article Big League Politics put together when Clare Bronfman was indicted. It covers the 8 key players quite well. #NXIVM

bigleaguepolitics.com/read-the-indic…
3) To offer a little more perspective, below are the pending counts against Keith Raniere and Allison Mack. Note, #NXIVM is a BIG group, which you will see in the following court docs. These folks listed throughout are some of the ringleaders. #ChildTrafficking
Read 73 tweets
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On balance, for all the Brexit drama of the last couple of weeks, votes of last couple of days, nothing has changed. Backstop (Northern Ireland or UK wide), close relationship based around EEA, extension of time, or no deal. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/parli…
Don't believe me? Try @BrunoBrussels - thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b… - it should be noted in any case now that there isn't enough time to negotiate anything meaningful on the future relationship
While always happy to receive replies to my posts, I don't think the EU will collapse before we're due to leave, or that at the last minute the EU will fold and offer us a free trade agreement and no border. I hope neither feature in government plans...
Read 4 tweets
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1. This thread by David is spot on, but I'll also add. If the UK avoids asking for an Article 50 extension, the longer it will take to leave the EU.
2. The UK is about to get into a situation where it wastes another ten months negotiating an extension, so that they have time to negotiate the future relationship.
3. The quickest way out of the EU, that involves successfully coming to a deal at the end, is negotiating the transition as close to the status quo as possible.
Read 8 tweets

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