Thread by @BBuchman_CNS

Good morning. The House Committee on Foreign Affairs meets with a panel of experts today to discuss climate change and its interconnected relationship to national security.

This interplay is one that often goes underreported.

This is unfortunate because when looking at climate through this lens, it is arguably the best time for ppl who disagree on the subject to form common ground.
i.e. Dont think water scarcity is caused by climate change but understand scarcity leads to conflict?
Start there.

One of the panelists this morning is Sherri Goodman (bio below) and according to her opening remarks, the time is now for America to get serious about the interconnectedness of climate change, war, famine, political unrest and terrorism.

She, among others testifying today, will remind lawmakers that the priority to address climate change isnt just the position of "libs" or treehuggers, either. No, even leaders of the U.S. military understand the tangled web a changing climate creates:

The "Bottom Line Up Front" according to Goodman.

Let us also remember this term "threat multiplier" today. I suspect it will come up repeatedly.

Speaking of threat multipliers -

This is also good contextual information from Goodwin: the nat sec concerns over climate have been brewing for over a decade.

Concerned about the economic threat China poses to the US? Are you also factoring in what happens to U.S. standing in the world when America pulls back on programs or policies that provide resilience to climate impact?

Goodwin will also explore that today:

And then there's the Middle East, a political hotbed that only grows hotter when you add climate into the mix, she explains:

Climate change already impacts the US military and with flooding, wildfire and drought threatening the stability of American bases even further - military readiness, and therefore national security, is in jeopardy:

Also on deck to testify today: Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn, former assistant secy of the Navy for Energy, Installations and Environment. He also sat on the advisory board for the Center for Climate and Security. (Bio below)

In his opening remarks, McGinn offers insight from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Joseph Dunford:

Dunford, Mattis and Coats, all "distinguished leaders" in McGinn's book, have taken a "solemn oath" to protect the nation, he says. And in that light....

McGinn: "I was deeply concerned when media reports indicated that members of the National Security Council staff were seeking to establish a panel to conduct adversarial reviews of such military and intelligence professionals and their well-researched assessments...

"that clearly point to the national security implications of climate change. I
was proud to join 57 colleagues – former military and national security professionals – in urging the President to reject this proposal."

A copy of the letter here: documentcloud.org/documents/5787…

The report McGinn said gave him concern was this one from WaPo, specifically: washingtonpost.com/national/healt…

McGinn makes his case:

Climate-driven severe weather magnifies existing tensions, McGinn says. Look at the spread of Boko Haram in Africa, for one.
The point is, in fact, well made.

If you & your kids are thirsty & crops have failed & you're starving, if a group comes to you and says: "Do this & you can eat or drink again" - what do you think you may do? Ignore the hand extending you or your child a glass of water? Maybe. The point is, though: maybe not.

McGinn again argues climate change impact cannot be considered in a vacuum - especially if existing threats of nuclear war concern nat sec - which they 100% do:

We will also hear testimony from Paul Weisenfeld, EVP of RTI International, a non profit research group, on the impact climate change has on developing nations. His bio here:

Weisenfeld: Global food scarcity has increased since '14 & the # of undernourished ppl has grown from 804M in '16 to 821M in '17.
"Driven primarily by climate, variability & conflict, famine threatened the lives of an est. 20M ppl in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan & Yemen in '17.

The 2018 report cited by Weisenfeld regarding food scarcity: fao.org/state-of-food-…

Climate change impact and immigration also go hand in hand. You cannot deal with one and not the other:

Finally, we will also hear testimony today from Barry Worthington, longtime executive director of the United States Energy Association.
His bio here: docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA…

The USEA is an association for both public and private-held energy businesses, organizations and federal agencies and has long worked with USAID to develop power/water infrastructure in developing nations.

Worthington will approach testimony today from an "all of the above" position on addressing/ resolving climate change impact. Note: With an emphasis on the economical value of such policies.

Hearing gets underway shortly and I will have a full story for @CourthouseNews. Stay tuned.

I have covered a number of hearings on climate change, and a handful of hearings on the intersection of climate change and national security. It seems, like much else in Congress, lawmakers become stuck at a political and philosophical impasse on this debate...

That polarization can result in inaction or in policy/programs that can be easily unwound or when actually enforced, have impact nowhere near the needed and/or desired effect.
Rep. Bill Keating, D-Mass and Rep. Michael McCaul, R-TX illustrate the existing impasse:

Keating: ‘Every other country on this planet is party or signatory to the Paris Agreement – to justify the misguided decision to step back, the WH announced plans to create an ad hoc group of select scientists to reassess government’s analysis of climate science..."

Keating: "After years and years of federal research that makes a clear and strong case that climate change is a serious threat, the Trump administration is now desperately seeking to undermine the conclusions that the continued burning of fossil fuels is harming the planet..."

"...and putting our nation’s security at risk. It is astounding. It is bizarre. It is rare to see every country in the world rally around an issue, one idea just about everyone is on board with – it is imperative we grapple with the future and the impact of climate change."

Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, responds: "The national security assessments are clear: climate change poses risk to the security of the United States and international community. The best way to address climate change is less clear..."

"President Obama's approach was unrealistic," McCaul says. "The green house gas emissions targeted in the framework of the Paris Accord would have cost our economy a fortune, hurting working ppl living paycheck to paycheck..."

"When Trump announced intent to withdraw from Paris, he expressed an openness in re-negotiating the deal on terms more favorable to the U.S."
"No longer at the mercy of the OPEC cartel," McCaul calls the U.S. a reliable, stable net energy exporter.

McCaul: "Our abundant natural resources not only support our economy and good paying jobs but makes us more secure as a nation...We have held down prices for consumers, contributing to global and economic prosperity."

Keating notes McCaul's opening remarks fail to mention or consider the new industries, jobs and dollars that could come from more investment in green tech.

McCaul moves to the panelists and this was a particularly interesting exchange because McCaul asked Worthington what terms of the Paris Accord he thought should be renegotiated.

Worthington says his frustration with Accord stems from the fact that China was not held to the same standards for emissions as the U.S. and other signatories were.

"The Chinese commitment was basically that they would try. There was no percentage reduction insisted for China. We are urging the accord to be renegotiated, where different countries all had an opportunity to do the same type of emissions reduction." - Worthington

So, McCaul says: China is continuing to fire up a coal plant every week, and its one of the biggest producers of greenhouse gases.
McGinn steps in: "That factoid is old news."

McGinn: "China has become one of the leading producers and exporters of green technology. They did it for a variety of reasons. It could be argued whether Paris was a factor there, but if you look at some of the major cities in China and see the choking levels...

"of air, water, land pollution: They see the imperative and they are living with the effects of climate change. They recognized they had to do something about it. This wasn't a zero-sum game, suggesting 'we can deal with climate change or have a strong economy."

McGinn: "This is an “and” proposition. This is not an us versus them situation."

McCaul actually agreed and responded to McGinn's statement by saying lawmakers should not get mired in debates about whether climate change is real or has impact - rather, both sides should stay focused on real time solutions.

More on China's shift toward renewable energy:
China invested $126B in 2018, 3x what US invested during the same year.
China plans to invest $360B by 2020 and an estimated 6T by 2030.
Stats from the report here:
documentcloud.org/documents/5788…

As the hearing goes on, the discussion transitioned back to intersection: Rep Dina Titus, D-Nevada: "Environmental changes cause ecological changes. Ecological changes cause demographic changes." (See: Rohingya)

McGinn agrees and notes what is happening in Syria:
"You can trace the roots of the political, cultural, religious and economic divides, but when you have a long term drought like Syria had, which caused migration to cities because the ability to live on land...

McGinn continues: "They previously lived on for decades - or centuries in some cases - it put a magnifying glass on that division and it exploded into civil war...."

He also clarifies: "I'm not making the case that climate is the direct cause but it certainly is a significant indirect cause of the kind of strife we deal with, including cross border migration and terrorism."

I'll dive a bit deeper into today's testimony on climate and nat sec soon in a full story for @CourthouseNews. On a related note, I'll be back with the committee again at 3PM as they discuss the future of NATO. Stay tuned.

STORY: Giving the crisis of climate change political import, national-security experts warned lawmakers Tuesday about how governments become vulnerable to terrorism as drought begets disease and otherwise cripples global economies.
courthousenews.com/climate-change…
@CourthouseNews