Thread by @JenniferMerode

Rumours of meaningful vote 3 on Friday. That’s important because of the two-track extension.

If no vote in favour of WA by the end of the week - i.e. 11pm UK time 29 March - the UK falls into the 12 April deadline track.

Although reality could be messier /1

Goodbye 22 May extension?

Hard to say anything so black and white - the UK could still get an extension until 22 May if the vote passes early next week 2/

The EU really wants clarity in coming days about whether WA will pass or not, meaning a long extension, or no-deal.

So the UK will have to make its mind up about European elections very soon, if no WA /3

Soft Brexit outcome from indicative votes could produce two outcomes, in EU view

1. Mobilise ERG and others to vote for WA 2) A serious government crisis that could lead to a general election /4

EU has pencilled in summit for few days before 12 April - they want time to prepare for any decision on a long extension.

But May gov has habit of leaving until v last minute.

Could also expect morale-boosting EU27 summit for no-deal. /5

Long extension would come with conditions.

European elections (of course) and pledges of “sincere cooperation” i.e. UK vows not to hold EU 7-yr budget negs and EU top jobs hostage to Brexit. Big concern for France /7 and that's it.