,
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While I wait for a train, let's just run through where we are:
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Art.50 ends on 12 April
The default outcome - i.e. the one that happens if there's no other action taken - is that the UK leaves without a deal
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The default outcome - i.e. the one that happens if there's no other action taken - is that the UK leaves without a deal
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Parliament has repeatedly expressed its view that a no-deal exit is not acceptable
So what options are there instead of this default?
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So what options are there instead of this default?
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Option 1 is to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, agreed by the UK and EU in November last year.
This resolves the liabilities of ending UK membership and the EU has indicated it will not accept any other version of this document
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This resolves the liabilities of ending UK membership and the EU has indicated it will not accept any other version of this document
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Parliament has now rejected this document 3 times, most recently last Friday
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Option 1.5 is to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement, but with a revised Political Declaration (which covers the shape of negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship)
The #IndicativeVotes last Wed and yesterday considered several possible paths for that future
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The #IndicativeVotes last Wed and yesterday considered several possible paths for that future
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Parliament rejected all the options in both rounds, including a customs union or participation in the single market
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Option 2 is to revoke the Art.50 process and keep the UK in the EU as a member
This is a unilateral choice for the UK, without any role for the EU in it. The only requirement in law is that a revocation is unconditional
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This is a unilateral choice for the UK, without any role for the EU in it. The only requirement in law is that a revocation is unconditional
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Parliament has voted to reject: direct revocation; a public vote that might include a revocation option; a mechanism to trigger revocation in the absence of a deal
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Option 3 is to add more time to the art.50 process
This requires approval of the UK and all 27 EU member states
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This requires approval of the UK and all 27 EU member states
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This is different from the other options, because it's not a solution in itself: it just gives more time to chose among: leaving with a deal; leaving with no deal; not leaving
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The UK and EU have already agreed one extension, which we're using now, but the EU has indicated that further time will only be given upon production of a plan from the UK on making its mind up
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The informal deadline for that plan is this Friday
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If the UK can't/won't produce a plan and no extension is agreed, then no-deal will occur on 12 April
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In sum, Parliament has indicated its opposition to all the substantive paths for this process, and the government has yet to suggest how it could make an extension worth granting
Which means no-deal increases in likelihood
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Which means no-deal increases in likelihood
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(still no train)
