Thread by @arthurhcyip

Idea:
Communicating in 1GW-nuclear-reactor-electric-output-equivalents could be helpful, since TWh/yr can be inaccessible & a nuclear reactor might be more tangible (for some).
Divide TWh/yr by 8 to get 1 unit of "reactor-equivalent." Trying this out... 1/

https://twitter.com/arthurhcyip/status/1113318474925973504

Electric energy generation in US, 2018 & change from 2017

In units of 1GW-nuclear-reactor-electricity-output-equivalent

Nuclear: 101, +0.3
Renewables: 93, +4
Coal: 143, -7.5
Nat gas: 184, +21

Total: 522, +18

With these simple units, here are some arithmetic + observations: 2/

Wind & solar: The US added 5 reactor-equiv last yr! (46 now)

Context: That addition was 5/522=1% of total gen. 46/522=9% total gen in 2018.

Fun facts:
-Almost all of 12 reactor-equiv of solar were built 2013-18.
-0.8 reactor-equiv of US rooftop solar was installed last yr! 3/

Nuclear: 101 is a steady 101/522=19% of total gen, 101/194=52% of Zero-C electricity.

Fun facts:
-Uprates added ~0.25/yr for past 30 yrs, but only 0.06 scheduled 2018-20.
-Capacity factor improvements (1985-2000) added equivalent of ~39 of today's reactors.
4/

Nuclear:
Sad facts:
-Watts Bar 2 added 1 in 2016 and the last one before that was Watts Bar 1 in 1996. Vogtle 3 and 4 should come online in 2021 and 2022.
-The US has lost 1-2/yr in the last 5 years and is also scheduled to lose 1-2/yr in the next 5 years.
5/

Coal:
A drop of 7.5 nuclear-reactor-equivalents! But 143 remain.
Drop of 7.5/522=1.5% of total gen. Coal still at 143/522=27% of total generation in 2018.

Sad fact: That was only a reduction of 7.5/150=5%.
6/

Natural gas:
A jump in 21 nuclear-reactor-equivalents!!
Added 21/522=4% total gen. Nat gas =35% total gen in 2018.

Sad fact: electric output from NG grew faster than wind, both in absolute (21 vs. 2.6 reactor-equiv) AND relative growth (21/163=13% vs. 2.6/34=8% for wind)!
7/

So:
1) The US is adding A LOT of wind and solar. On absolute level, it was 5 nuclear-reactor-equivalents last year!
2) But the US also added 21!! generation from natural gas, while reducing 8 from coal.
3) The changes in coal and natural gas continue to dominate.
8/

4) We have a long way to go to get to 100% Zero-C elec additions, (5 vs. 21! That's 19% RE!)
let alone 100% Zero-C elec, (need to replace 330+ units of fossil)
let alone 100% Zero-C energy, (100% LD EV adds 130+ units of demand)
& then non-energy & already-in-atmosphere GHG...
9/

5) #energytwitter probably already knew/realized all of this, & percentages also do the same job, but perhaps a tangible unit could help more people understand the scale of energy (inspired by @davidjcmackay simple numbers, pro-arithmetic/numeracy withouthotair.com/Contents.html) 10/end

Addendum:
It looks like 2019 changes in electric generation will be much better than 2018, according to EIA Short-Term Outlook(/actual Forecast).
1.7x wind additions, 0.4x NG additions, 1x solar additions.
That would be roughly 4.3 wind, 9 NG, 2.4 solar. (6.7 v 9 = 43% RE!)
11/

But remember, to stabilize climate, as a first step to 100% Zero-C electricity, we have 330+ units (which grew by 21 NG, -8 coal) of fossil power to displace.

5 last year, 7 next year of wind & solar is still peanuts. We need a lot more effort & advances in technology & policy.