So what's killing nuclear power in the U.S.?
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTG79z9W0AYArNH.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTG9LZbXkAAfv-g.jpg)
Abstract & paper here: ceepr.mit.edu/publications/w…
Slides presented at #ASSA2018 here: dropbox.com/s/b6192hrvn331…
NY & IL have already intervened. CT, NJ, others debating action now.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTG-x19XkAEW3QY.jpg)
But what forces are really to blame for driving nuclear to the brink?
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHAqa1WsAAz5VY.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHBWMwWsAAaB7A.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHBWM5X0AEc5pp.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHBWNCX4AACZgi.jpg)
There are at least two other suspects in this case: stagnant demand for #electricity after the Great Recession and cheap #naturalgas unlocked by the boom in #shalegas production.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHCuUWWkAcp2ld.jpg)
Lower demand obviously means lower prices. Straightforward effect. So that's suspect #2.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHDGYXWkAE0LR1.jpg)
Despite Perry's assertions, DOE's "baseload review" concluded gas was biggest factor driving #coal or #nuclear plants offline energy.gov/staff-report-s…
Simulations by Haratyk at MIT sciencedirect.com/science/articl… & LBNL/ANL agree emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/…
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHEZFbW4AAEpxd.jpg)
My paper provides the first empirical evidence in this case, focusing on 19 nuclear plants in PJM market.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHF0iWWkAAeI04.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHGzGPWAAI0CM2.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHInVuXcAEqhob.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHInV2XcAAci25.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHJGoeWkAA1Ar0.jpg)
Here are my primary results.
The graphic makes it obvious: natural gas is the main killer. Effect of gas is order of magnitude larger than wind or demand.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHKXkjXcAIGESg.jpg)
For ALL OTHER nuclear plants in PJM, wind does not appear to have statistically significant effect on prices earned.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHNBOiWsAAVEaD.jpg)
That said, stagnant electricity demand and expectations of future growth in wind generation going forward may be accomplices.
Case closed? /end
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Link in thread above is unfortunately broken.