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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/ The president declared yesterday, "You can’t come in. Our country is full". Is this true?

U.S. is actually experiencing its slowest population growth in almost a century, and the current fertility rate is 16% BELOW replacement.

cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr…
2/ Without immigration, U.S. working age population would be shrinking, with serious negative consequences for the economy.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017…
3/ Growth would slow down considerably and house prices would stagnate / fall. We'd be looking at many years of "japan-like" symptoms, and political ramifications would be worse.

We can be full of prejudice, and stop immigration. But our children will pay the price.
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ If you are feeling bored, let's talk about the very low interest rate and why it may not be good for the global economy.

I am talking about long-term rate (r), e.g. 10 year treasury, which is not directly determined by the central bank.
2/ r has been marching down since the 80's, and essentially stuck around zero in real terms since the Great Recession.

I will not go into the reasons for why r has gone down to zero (a super-interesting question). Instead I'll focus on the *consequences* of very low r.
3/ r is one of the strongest economic forces around. A low r increases the present value of future cash flows, making it more attractive to invest today. This is why a low r is thought to be expansionary - call this the "traditional effect".
Read 15 tweets
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ What are the financial incentives of the avg billionaire to support/run a "spoiler" campaign that helps re-elect Trump & staves off a Warren-style wealth tax for 4 years?

Avg billionaire net wealth ≈ 4B, growing at >>2%
Wealth tax per year ≈ 80 mil
4-year tax ≈ 320 mil
2/ For comparison, the successful 2016 Trump campaign cost 400 mil. So the average billionaire can underwrite an entire "spoiler" presidential campaign, and potentially make money doing so.

There are 585 US billionaires. Only one, or a few together, can spoil the 2020 election.
3/ This is just one example of why extreme inequality and well-functioning democracies cannot co-exist.
Read 3 tweets
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ Some thoughts on @SenWarren proposal to tax wealth above 50 million at 2%.

It is an idea very much worth considering. A number of details (related to design and implementation) will need to be worked out, but it is a step in the right direction.

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/0…
2/ People have discussed implications of this proposal for revenue, labor supply and inequality, which is obviously important.

But I would also highlight another angle: proposal's implications for "savings glut", long term interest rate and the broader macro economy.
3/ A somewhat subtle, but important, implication of very high wealth inequality combined with very low inter-generational mobility is a glut of gross savings and very low interest rates.

Beyond a point, this leads to malfunctions such as "liquidity traps" and financial bubbles
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Conrad Hackett
@conradhackett
NEW REPORT: How and why religious commitment varies between young & old as well as across countries. This study reports on @pewresearch surveys from a record number of countries (106).

This is the start of a thread with key results
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