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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/ What are the financial incentives of the avg billionaire to support/run a "spoiler" campaign that helps re-elect Trump & staves off a Warren-style wealth tax for 4 years?

Avg billionaire net wealth ≈ 4B, growing at >>2%
Wealth tax per year ≈ 80 mil
4-year tax ≈ 320 mil
2/ For comparison, the successful 2016 Trump campaign cost 400 mil. So the average billionaire can underwrite an entire "spoiler" presidential campaign, and potentially make money doing so.

There are 585 US billionaires. Only one, or a few together, can spoil the 2020 election.
3/ This is just one example of why extreme inequality and well-functioning democracies cannot co-exist.
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ Some thoughts on @SenWarren proposal to tax wealth above 50 million at 2%.

It is an idea very much worth considering. A number of details (related to design and implementation) will need to be worked out, but it is a step in the right direction.

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/0…
2/ People have discussed implications of this proposal for revenue, labor supply and inequality, which is obviously important.

But I would also highlight another angle: proposal's implications for "savings glut", long term interest rate and the broader macro economy.
3/ A somewhat subtle, but important, implication of very high wealth inequality combined with very low inter-generational mobility is a glut of gross savings and very low interest rates.

Beyond a point, this leads to malfunctions such as "liquidity traps" and financial bubbles
Read 4 tweets
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ The Saudi economy is in a pickle, and how this unwinds over the next decade or so is likely to have major economic and political repercussions in the region. I'll try to highlight the fundamental challenges and how they may play out.
2/ Oil is on a collision course with technology. Alternative energy is reaching inflection point. Soon it will make economic sense to dump combustion engines in favor of alternatives.

Here's a nice summary by @GregorMacdonald on this:
3/ Prices are forward-looking, so the impending technological switch to alternatives will hit oil prices sooner. SA needs $90+ oil price to continue spending and transfer at current levels. This is unlikely to be sustainable. So what gives?
Read 11 tweets
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
1/ Surprise surprise ... the company founded to "rate women" is struggling to find its moral compass.

Here is the broader issue though, best formalized in the seminal *multi-tasking* paper of Holmstrom-Milgrom.
2/ The main goal of companies like facebook and twitter is to maximize revenue, which come from how many eyeballs the company can attract and retain. They can attract eye balls through two types of effort (this is the multi-tasking).
3/
"good effort": only allow decent, factual conversations. Impose firewalls such as zero bots, take down fake/anonymous accounts, ban hate-speech.
"bad effort": allow a free-for-all environment where bots, slander and fake-news rules.
Read 6 tweets

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Who funds the IEA, the TPA, the ASI &co?
You know, the RW 'free trade' thick tanks advocating tax havens, "freedom" (no regulations like workers' rights or environmental protection), no welfare (no tax & no free healthcare).
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