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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Theresa May told 'you are the problem' by backbenchers furious over Brexit paralysis as they urge her to go for good of the party telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/… via @Telegraph
@Telegraph So, the 1922 told May today that she should step down. When she doesn't, more than 1/2 of Conservative MPs will hv to openly call for her to go tomorrow. This can't wait 'til Wednesday - that's the day she presents her plan to the EU.
@Telegraph Now is the moment of decision, Conservative Party. It's Change or Die. Even changing may not save the party, but not changing = Doom.
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More from @andrew_lilico see all

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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
It's interesting that I write abt how the constitutional monarchy shld hv intervened, either way, on Cooper-Letwin, & a zillion people tweet at me abt Brexit. This isn't abt Brexit, per se. It's abt our rotting constitution. Remainers shld care abt that as well as Leavers.
Here is me writing on why constitutional monarchy is an ideal system & the reforms to the constitutional monarchy required for it not to atrophy into an undesirable ritual monarchy, in 2002:bowgroup.org/sites/bowgroup…
"Forty years ago, every serious Conservative would have known the arguments for a largely hereditary second chamber. But these arguments were allowed to fall into such disuse, and the constitutional position of the hereditary peers
was allowed to become so decrepit,+
Read 7 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
Try this. Next time a Remainer says "Why did you hv to try to disturb everything? Why cldn't we just leave things as they were?" ask: "Explain to us about this 'things staying as they were'. How was that supposed to work once deeper €zone integration progressed as planned?"+
The €zone bloc already has a qualified majority. Even now, if it all voted together (as it almost always will in the future when more integrated) it cld set all the EU's rules, overruling the UK every single time, on everything. That's the future. There's no "carry on as now".
So ask them: Explain how we "carry on as now" when now we can get our policies thro & block those we don't like but in the future the €zone will set all the rules & our votes will be totally irrelevant? Our only future inside the EU is one in which we are dominated by the €zone
Read 6 tweets
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Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
A key consequence of forming a customs union with the EU post-Brexit, & hence being unable to do new FTAs with anyone else, is that that prevents us from creating any new geopolitical partnership once we're outside (FTAs are typically the centrepiece of geopolitical partnerships)
I think I now grasp why Corbyn wants a customs union with the EU. He wants to make sure we can't do a trade deal with the US, & he also wants to make sure we don't pursue unilateral free trade.
By forcing through a permanent customs union, Corbyn also hopes to prevent the UK from enhancing its ties with Commonwealth partners, which wld be likely to hv a military dimension (v bad from his pov).
Read 3 tweets

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Grahame Lucas #FBPE #FBR
@GrahameLucas
Breaking: German TV ZDF reveals Russian plans to influence far right AfD and control its MPs. Russian intelligence is attempting to undermine Western democracy. Goal is to get anti-EU parties elected to European Parliament
Two obvious questions: which British MPs and parties are accepting donations in exchange for influence from Russian oligarchs aligned with Putin? Why is Putin opposed to a second referendum? What he is now trying to do in Germany has already worked in UK
From February 2019: The Prime Minister has been challenged over the Conservative Party’s continuing to accept hundreds of thousands of pounds in donations from the wife of a former Vladimir Putin minister. scotsman.com/news/politics/…
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Where @CitySamuel tears a whole in #Brexit backers who failed to realise they needed to compromise. But then....

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
And the blames them for failing to cut through the continuity bias of Whitehall and Olly Robbins. But the problem was deeper than that... /2
The problem was that they never provided negotiable answers - Raab, Davis, Boris, Cox - to how the FTA they demanded addressed the Irish border issue and its constitutional knock-on effects.

No answers then; and as Parliament shows now, still none. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The Salzburg summit looms, Raab plays to home crowd over the #Brexit bill, everyone 'wants' a deal ...but yet no-one can explain what it will look like.

So what is happening with #Brexit? Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
The first point is that the clock is ticking, but time is standing still.

Raab talks about "good progress" but actually talks are at a standstill. He bounces around looking all perky and boxerly, but there's isn't much to say. On the tough stuff anyway. /2
Barnier says divorce deal is "80%" done, and deal can be clinched in 6-8 weeks IF the Brits are "realistic".

Markets jump for joy, but they overlook that "IF" and what Barnier means by "realistic".

So what does he mean? /3
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets

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