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Morgan Stanley’s $35B base case for 2021 “social e-commerce” TAM, seems to be far underestimating Facebook/Instagram’s ecom opportunity.
Shopify did $40B in GMV in 2018 & is growing 50%+. FB’s opportunity should be at least as big. Many of SHOP's customers are SMBs who are built on social. SHOP is mostly North America. FB is global. SHOP is primarily SMBs, FB’s runs the whole gamut.
In some parts of the world, FB is already a huge ecom/classifieds player, without any real effort, almost evolving by accident. (The fragmentation of Facebook usage across different geographies is an interesting topic for another day.)
For a sense of how big the blue sky TAM could be, look at China, where social ecom is estimated to be a $190 bn / 1.3 trillion RMB opportunity in 2019. (The WeChat/Facebook convergence is finally starting to happen...kind of.) 
The take rate depends on how deep down the stack FB wants to go. It starts with advertising, but clearly, FB's obsessed with closing the attribution loop and wants to tie ad spend to transactions, translating into additional features like Action buttons and now Checkout.
Going into payments full force, which FB has dabbled with inside Messenger & now Whatsapp Pay via UPI in India, seems inevitable. Checkout creates the oppty to accelerate payments & could eventually be leveraged to in-person payments and a whole new world of financial services.
Point is, the market could be much, much bigger. Defining the social ecom market & assuming FB takes a certain share is backwards. Co's like FB, Pinterest, and Snapchat are creating the market through their innovation. The size of the market is determined by them, not vice versa.
