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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
market is completely lullabied by the FED new tone ... little VIX thread :

1/n

COT report large Specs net of total OI vs VIX spot , market thinks SPX IV can drop back to single digit
2/n COT report

• large specs net VIX positioning is currently at lowest possible 5Y rolling percentile
3/n VIX seasonality

• 2019 coming off sharply after increased concerns in Dec, then FED put plunge protection team came to rescue (data dependency)

• currently not single digits, but way below any multi-year averages
4/n VIX percentile seasonality

• well below any averages
5/n VIX historically vs distribution
6/n VIX term structure
7/end VXB coiling...

conclusion: FED lullaby, "market will never see volatile market ever again" = translated "COMPLACENCY STARTS NOW"

James Bond: "never say never".
@threadreaderapp please unroll. thx
* market thinks VIX can drop back to single digits.
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More from @MacroTechnicals see all

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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
did some digging regarding US buyback vs FF rates...

Historical data shows some variety, nevertheless, I tried my best to overlay the average I found over the annual FF (3y shift/inv scale). Not to be predictive, but interesting.

Discussion y'day:

@DmitryMolotkov
even if this "slows down" to $350b-$450b range over the next 3 years as interest rates increased (but now on hold), it still would bring strong stock demand, but also further increases debt/equity ratio.
another viewpoint: not too long after buyback peak, stock market peaked in general, which is not a coincidence.

And it doesn't look like buybacks are thriving to a new peak (as interest rates foreshadow peaks).
Read 5 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR Apr2019 confidence survey thread 1/n

• Manufacturing still collapsing, multi year lows in many countries

• Growth and Inflation implied expectations weak

• ECB has no other choice to keep "stimulating"

$EUR $STOXX $FGBL_F
2/n Euro Area

• ESI 104 31M low
• Manu 55M low
• Serv 3M low
• Cons 3M low
• Retail 2M low
• Constr 2M low
3/n Germany

• ESI 105.1 35M low
• Manu 69M low
• Serv 2M high
• Cons 25M low
• Retail 3M low
• Constr 7M low
Read 12 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Weekly recap wk17 26Apr19 - PFLUGPOST late thread 1/n

• another US RiskOn week, 4th month since FED "put", no sign of roll-over
• VIX/VSTOXX remain suppressed
• global stocks mixed/neg
• more US$ strength will be EM concern
• this wk ESI/PMI/ISM/FOMC
2/n update Global Markets 1M performance

• yet another strong RiskOn month, combined with seasonal factors and FED "certainty" to put rates on hold/ stop QT (more to this subject later)
3/n update Global Markets YTD

• strong sell-off Q4 2018 > FED put > strong rebound 2019, but major benchmark indices annualised YTD not sustainable, I said that a few times. It will slow down and a correction is overdue
Read 22 tweets

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