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Amazing numbers, largely consistent with other polls, which illustrate a longer trend in the Netherlands and Europe as a whole. Some quick reflections. #Thread
1. Loss of conservative VVD of @MinPres (-6%) is not as remarkable as it seems, given that it got a bump because of Erdogan stunt just before 2017 elections (ca. 3%) .
2. Implosion of "Christian democratic" CDA more telling. They pivoted hard right, competing with VVD for PVV votes, but are hammered in polls. Single digit support shows that once subcultural party has only minor solid base (which is ageing rapidly).
3. As @MinPres is still pushing myth that "good populism" defeated "bad populism", which was amplified by many media without any scrutiny, Dutch radical right is currently around 25% (PVV + FvD), higher than ever before.
4. Rise of PVV and FvD is because, not despite, "good popuism" of both VVD and CDA (as well as weaker pandering by PvdA and SP, among others), which keeps radical right frames and issues on top of agenda.
5. It looks like PVV is starting to stagnate, and stabilize, around 12-13%, whereas much of loss of VVD/CDA -- as well as, I assume, new and young voters -- goes to newer Forum for Democracy (FvD) of Theirry Baudet.
6. FvD has more of UKIP profile, whereas PVV is more like FN (now RN). FvD is more "respectable" in terms of class and discourse. Leader(s) are insider-outsiders, provocative and "playful", very much like late Pim Fortuyn was. Pushing boundaries without seeming overly ideological
7. Just as with Fortuyn, large parts of media, and broader establishment, are enamored and intrigued by Baudet (and a bit less HIddema), loving his pseudo-intellectual provocations -- compared to Wilders' increasingly stale and zealotry single-issue Islamophobia.
8. While FvD has attracted massive support, including members and speaker audiences, including among higher educated (in particular students), it is as much as one-person party as PVV. But it's leader is more volatile and could get bored with politics any moment.
9. Regarding other parties, social liberal D66 gets its usual shellacking in government, as it sells down its socio-cultural progressivism for narrow neoliberal interests. It largely serves a government agenda it opposed in opposition -- narrow-minded and reactionary.
9. Dutch left is largely irrelevant. PvdA got hammered in 2017 and polls show that this is structural. SP is stuck at 8-9%, whatever its leader or campaign. Neither party is relevant in political debate or truly challenges dominant political agenda (see SP's anti-free movement).
10. After having eaten up most of PvdA support, I assume GreenLeft (GL) is now winning over disappointed D66 voters, mostly younger and urban. Mostly soft support, which will be hard to hold on to in (inevitable) case of government participation.
11. So, is this extreme fragmentation a Dutch disease of is the Netherlands the future of Europe? I have noted after #EP2014 that there is a broader European trend. blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…
12. But there are few things that make Netherlands special: (1) extremely proportional electoral system; (b) long history of extreme multipartyism; (c) political culture that values small parties.
13. That said, even in the Netherlands recent fragmentation has complicated politics and has led to broader coalitions as well as option of minority governments. It also reopened never-ending discussion on reform of electoral system.
14. Beyond Netherlands, it's clear that era of "Big Parties" is over. Almost no party still gets above one-third of the vote and few over one-quarter. This has many structural economic and social causes, expressed politically by two- and now even three-dimensional political space
15. Hence, this is not just a "phase", or temporal response to Great Recession. It is time for both academics and practitioners to take it more serious and think about best ways to adapt to this new reality. #TheEnd
