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CoinMetrics.io
@coinmetrics
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Trying out a new format for sharing some of our data, including some metrics not yet live on the site.
Today we'll cover some metrics relating to Bitcoin's miner economics and its long term cycles
Bitcoin's inflation rate is projected to decline to 1.8% annually in May 2020
Bitcoin's difficulty has recovered sharply from its second-largest ever decline
More granular look at changes to difficulty
This measure tracks the actual velocity (adjusted transaction value summed over the trailing 12 months divided by supply) indexed to active supply in that prior year. This gives us an idea of the rate of turnover of units that are actually in circulation
More to come tomorrow!
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CoinMetrics.io
@coinmetrics
The recent collapse in BTC transaction count seems to correlate with the end of the Veriblock testnet (on March 4th) which was accounting for 20-30% of BTC transactions

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
It's possible, as Trustnodes suggests, that a Venezuelan blackout was responsible for some of the drop, but the Veriblock testnet ending correlates perfectly with the drop and would explain the entire decline.

trustnodes.com/2019/03/10/bit…
Veriblock's mainnet launches on March 15 so expect a bump to txn count then
Read 4 tweets
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CoinMetrics.io
@coinmetrics
Great news – we've finally finished our more detailed parse of the Bitcoin blockchain, and we have a fully fleshed out suite of data ready for BTC specifically. This includes median tx fee, difficulty, median tx value, payment count, and more to come.
Median figures are SO much more informative than averages. Here's mean versus median fees for BTC:

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Average difficulty versus network value

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Read 8 tweets

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I woke and saw the sun today and two thoughts came to mind I will share.

1. Bitcoin is looking bullish and it wants to go up, however rich people say no so no.

2. The belief that the next Bitcoin halving is a bullish factor is economically false from a infrastructure pov.
(1) Bitcoin looks bullish, it is clear that price wants to go up however it is unable to break this supply block.

To not consider that the sell walls are actually to suppress price and accumulate would be foolish.

But the rallies are fading and supply>demand still.
(2) The relationship between difficulty and price is quite simple logic.

Over time difficulty rose with hashrates rising, price rose as demand steadily increased, scarcity rose as rewards declined.

On a log scale, it looks like we may be in a similar cycle as the last.
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Delphi Digital
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0/ Using UTXO age dynamics across market cycles, we attempt to time a price bottom for #Bitcoin by understanding when selling pressure from long term holders will wane. Our analysis suggests a likely bottom for $BTC in Q1’19 (see report for detail)
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1/ This analysis expands on the key takeaways we provided within the Short Term Outlook of our State of Bitcoin report (released last month). You can view our thread summarizing the report as well as the full report itself here:
2/ The green line represents the % of bitcoin that hasn’t been moved in at least 1 year. Box 1 indicates the period of rapid growth of bitcoin that hasn’t moved in at least a year (hodlers) while box 2 shows the price at which that bitcoin was last moved (people buying the rally)
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- adidog CEO - [2019➞₿➞📈]
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Looks like CME fired right upon opening back up.

One gap closes and another opens.

Bitcoin over 4k, time to pay attention now.
Buy side liquidity is fading and price is dripping.

Resistance growing.

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Pumped off the middle of the range with this triangle meme.

Being met with heavy resistance from where price broke down previously.

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