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CoinMetrics.io
@coinmetrics
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The recent collapse in BTC transaction count seems to correlate with the end of the Veriblock testnet (on March 4th) which was accounting for 20-30% of BTC transactions

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
It's possible, as Trustnodes suggests, that a Venezuelan blackout was responsible for some of the drop, but the Veriblock testnet ending correlates perfectly with the drop and would explain the entire decline.

trustnodes.com/2019/03/10/bit…
Veriblock's mainnet launches on March 15 so expect a bump to txn count then
To put it another way, tx count (red) is just converging to the active address (blue) trend. They became decoupled in late 2018 when the Veriblock testnet began. The seasonality you see is Bitcoin's lower usage on the weekend.

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
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CoinMetrics.io
@coinmetrics
Great news – we've finally finished our more detailed parse of the Bitcoin blockchain, and we have a fully fleshed out suite of data ready for BTC specifically. This includes median tx fee, difficulty, median tx value, payment count, and more to come.
Median figures are SO much more informative than averages. Here's mean versus median fees for BTC:

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Average difficulty versus network value

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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nic carter
@nic__carter
Two incompatible economic theories:

A) unbounded blockspace will attract sufficient commerce and attract sufficient fees
B) bounded blockspace will cause a transaction queue to develop and induce a vibrant fee market
Empirical evidence seems to support B) so far, although the fact that BCH has a smaller userbase may be a confounding factor. A fork with a single parameter change is a nice natural experiment though

coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Conceptually, A seems incoherent to me. If you commit to truly unbounded blockspace, blockspace is worthless (since there's an infinity of it) and you cannot charge for access = fees are 0. So you need to impose an upper bound somewhere.
Read 10 tweets
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Awe & Wonder 🌑
@Awe_andWonder
#BTC update - similar to previous cycles, #Bitcoin closed below the logarithmic regression trendline this week reaching towards the lower band. In addition, long-term monthly returns remain in negative territory. 1/
From a historical perspective, #BTC should find intermediate support at these levels. The strength of the upcoming bounce will provide more insight. From a weekly POV, the lower confidence band is steadily rising. Note that so far price has never closed below these bands. 2/
Admittedly, #BTC hit 4800 almost two months faster than previously forecasted and hit the bottom of the current proportional cycle in a hurry. Unfortunately, on a relative basis, on chain transaction volume is weaker than typically witnessed during previous trend changes.
Read 4 tweets
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Anthony Sassano
@sassal0x
1/ The “dApps have no active users" narrative needs to die.

The way we can measure crypto-network use is more nuanced than pointing to on-chain transactions & making a conclusion from that metric alone.

‘Daily active users (DAUs)' or ‘txs per second’ are bad metrics.

(thread)
2/ Firstly, not all blockchain txs are created equal and measuring the activity of a crypto-network in general is hard. For example, to achieve a large # of tx per second, a network like EOS sacrifices decentralization by limiting the validator pool to 21 ‘block producers (BPs)’.
3/ By doing this, EOS can offer ‘free’ transactions (which are not sybil resistant). This means that the transactions on the EOS blockchain are susceptible to spam/gaming which invalidates the 'txs per second' metric as a gauge for use of the EOS blockchain.
Read 11 tweets
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Alex Krüger 🇦🇷
@Crypto_Macro
1/ $ETH would remain more vulnerable than $BTC for three reasons:

- Twice as much as selling pressure from natural sellers relative to market cap
- Lower odds of an ETF
- Lots of competitors vs no competitors
2/ ETH vs BTC Selling pressure

- ICO treasury holdings: $12.5M/day ETH, $1.5M/day BTC
- Exchanges: $25M/day BTC
- Miners: $6M/day ETH, $13M/day BTC

(using data from coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets… and assumptions from hackernoon.com/crypto-traders…)
3/ ETH vs BTC Selling pressure

- Aggregated: $18.5M ETH, $39.5M BTC
- Market cap: $30B ETH, $120B BTC
- As % of market cap: 0.06% ETH, 0.03% BTC

=> twice as much relative supply hitting the market for ETH than for BTC
Read 4 tweets
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nic carter
@nic__carter
I've been toying with two metrics for appraising conventional public blockchains: informational or semantic density, and economic density.
The ultimate cost is the data that must be transmitted and stored in full nodes. So this answers "per unit of cost, what is the effectiveness of this system?"
Semantic density is harder to put a real number on, but boils down to "how much information does this byte carry?" Batching, L2, arguably settlement of off- or near-chain txns, and other efficiency-enhancing measures increase semantic density.
Read 7 tweets
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Alex Krüger 🇦🇷
@Crypto_Macro
1/ At current prices, top 5 PoW coins (BTC, ETH, ZEC, BCH, LTC) are creating about USD 22 million in coins every day, USD 8 billion a year. BTC represents 56% of that total, while ETH represents 30%. Given current depressed prices, can be assumed ALL are being sold. #mining
2/ Miners, together with exchanges and ICOs, need to sell their coins to fund their operations. These market participants represent natural sellers. Combine that with the relative absence of new crypto investors, and you have the reason for prices crashing. #DemandAndSupply
3/ Given the dearth of new retail investors, crypto has been looking towards the infamous influx of institutional investors to save the day, the institutional investors that are not coming. Hence the importance of an ETF & its likely upcoming rejection. hackernoon.com/cboebitcoinetf…
Read 11 tweets

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