The federal election this year is more important than you might think.
#cdnpoli Thread ….
The swings are often massive, occurring about every 10 years, with almost total shifts from right to center-left and back.
1982 was a period when more than 2/3 of the provinces were conservative and infamous PET was Prime Minister.
A different time when country came first.
We have had periods with aligned Liberals, notably since 2016 and the election of Justin Trudeau. But they had no constitutional axe to grind, and public alignment was hard.
5 Conservative: ON, AB, MB, SK, NB
1 CAQ: QC
3 Liberal: NS, NL, PE
1 NDP: BC
Elections this year: NL, PE, maybe BC
NL goes to the polls on 16 May!
Will we see 7 Con (or Con+CAQ) provinces this year?
I bet Scheer dreams of this.
7 provinces with 50%+ of the population can make substantive changes.
Often called the “7-50” formula.
The 5 current Con provinces already have >50% of the pop
The trigger for change is number of provinces
Have Trumpisim and Populist Alt-Right politics changed everything?
Is there an inexorable tilt to the right that will push the majority of Canadian Fed and Prov politics right?
We already have well over 50% of the population represented by Conservative Provincial governments, even if you don’t count Quebec.
This is baked in for at least 3 more years. This situation is not uncommon, but…
We have 60% of the provinces represented by Conservatives and the CAQ in Quebec right now. We only need 66% for constitutional amendments.
2 provincial elections coming up. Small populations, but they count in Constitutional Amendment rules.
NL election in a month is a big deal. We could easily have 7 provinces aligned and supporting a Conservative federal government. #nlpoli
This is about much more than the provincial debt. The Liberal incumbents must not loose to the Conservatives.
A Conservative win pushes the Con provincial gov’t count to 6. This is playing with charter fire.
And there is the possibility that they do mischief with (or to) Quebec.
Of course, you need “small c” provinces to play along, but stranger things have happened.
I am not so sure anymore. It seems the politics of stupid are all around us. Old norms are broken repeatedly.
I’m worried. You should be.
Canadians think the next Fed election is about Scheer and Trudeau. It is really about your rights – lasting change.
Marriage (man and a women)
Homosexuality (no rights)
Health care (private)
Social welfare (less for people, more for corporations) …