Thread by @DrAlbertazziUK

Time for a little thread on the relationship between Lega and M5S.

Here we go. 👇

2/ What’s the problem? Bottom line: according to polls, Lega
may get as much as 37% in EU elections (vs. 17 a year ago), while M5S just
above 20 (vs 32). M5S needs to show that it is not subordinate to what should
theoretically be its junior partner.

3/ Translates into clashes on some related topics.
M5S Mayor of Rome, Virginia Raggi, is being investigated again, this time for abuse of office. This is right when Parliament supposed to approve a “Growth Decree” which also contains measures to “Save” Rome’s public finances.

4/ State would take responsibility for chunck of city’s debts – right when Mayor risks a trial. Signing up to this would have been problematic for Lega at any time – it still has a strong and powerful northern core of activists/representatives...

5/ ... who would rather let “Thieving Rome” – as they used to call it – sort its mess out by herself. Hence Lega is threatening not to vote for it: all councils should be helped, not just one, it claims.

6/ But, of course, Lega irritated by M5S asking that Lega Undersecretary for Transport, Armando Siri, resigns until he has cleared his name. He’s also under investigation (for corruption). (Details of why Raggi & Siri being investigated not terribly important to us here).

7/ By attacking Siri, M5S is attempting to "regain" some purity, after it swallowed bitter pill of not allowing Lega leader & Interior Minister Salvini be put on trial for kidnapping over the events of the Diciotti ship (Aug 2019). Senate had to decide, M5S voted against trial.

8/ So, what’s going to happen? Salvini’s Interview with Resto
del Carlino, published yesterday, is interesting. It’s also here: quotidiano.net/politica/matte…

9/ Defends Siri, as in normal country people innocent until found
guilty (but, of course, Lega brandished handcuffs in Parliament each time a
politician was involved in famous Clean Hands investigations of the 1990s.)

10/ Salvini says he is entirely focused on his job – i.e. new initiative on “Safe Schools” (against drug dealers) & that he has “no intention whatsoever” to bring down govt. He has said this many times: sounds credible & looks the part 100%.

11/ Two ideal scenarios for Lega now: a) M5S brings down govt – hence
they’d be accused of privileging power games to delivering on promises made to voters. This would make the hypothesis below (i.e. dissident M5S MPs jumping ship) more realistic.

12/ It is unlikely scenario, but M5S has done many "unlikely things" lately. & it’s damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t.

Or: b) Govt loses its shine & Lega acts before too late.

13/ 23 billion must be found by Autumn or VAT will need to be increased, following successive agreements with mighty EU Commission (which this govt cannot undo) to avoid Italian deficit increase.

This is a serious threat to govt.

14/ If 23 billion not found, we are talking considerable VAT rise that’s going to be noticed by consumers & impact negatively on economy. Inflicting very deep cuts to avoid this situation will also hurt either this or that group/lobby. Won’t be pain free in any case.

15/ To avoid this situation, scenario b) sees Lega progressively distancing itself from govt, accusing M5S of boycotting “Contract for Govt” signed a year ago, hence betraying trust of electorate.

Narrative shifts to need for new executive to finally
complete the job.

16/ There’s a lot of talk that this would be possible without elections – which President Mattarella would not grant without trying to find alternative majority in Parliament, as Salvini knows very well.

17/ How? Lega, Forza Italia and Brothers of Italy would be joined by large group of M5S MPs who’ve become disaffected (& know they’re unlikely to be re-elected as party now getting 20% or less).

18/ Mind you, nothing we haven’t seen before –jumping ship in Parliament is indeed rule, not exception. Nonetheless, just rumours right now. We’ll know if Lega considers it realistic option by monitoring its discourse on present govt –hence significance of Salvini’s interviews.

19/ Wouldn’t happen overnight, ground has to be prepared. Salvini’s credibility paramount to him. Not only he’s regarded as "real" PM right now, but he’s also positioning himself as leader at European level – hence his activism to create unitary group of populist radical right.

20/ It's done precisely to foster his image as Prime Ministerial material. Who sits with whom in EU Parliament irrelevant to great majority of voters, but who's winner & who's loser does matter.

21/ Lega too clever to bring down govt in haste, if it looks like party is simply “cashing in “on result of EU elections. Hence new narrative will take time to "cook slowly" – a major unexpected event, such as international financial crisis of sort, not withstanding, of course.

22/ Golden rule with Salvini: Watch the narrative. It's consistent, coherent, convincing & well planned. You'll see it coming.

Whatever option comes to fruition, change of govt extremely unlikely until next spring.

Happy break! /END/

Update. Just heard latest statements by M5S/Lega, hence easy prediction: Rome will be saved (but measure will be given different name, & "something" symbolic will be done for other councils).
Siri won't resign.

(Crystal ball is away, so this is just me, could be wrong).