Thread by @Polixenes13

1/ Goldman Sachs, historically $TSLA's most important underwriter, is out with a note this morning. Goldman cut its 2019 (non-GAAP) EPS estimate in half (from 1.88 to 0.89), and sees the average 2019 quarterly revenue at $1B lower than Q4's $7.25B.

2/ "Ultimately we think the event was a way for the company to focus investors away from the underlying demand and margin pressures the company is currently facing as they bring the Model 3 to mass market and as there has been waning Model S/X demand."

3/ Goldman's Tamberrino, on hand for the event, went for a ride: It was "reasonably good (comparable to its peers)." But, he asks: Why this event, when "most of the details were largely communicated already"?

4/ Exactly how was that ride? "the vehicle was hesitant at times (RVs parked on the side of the road), took a turn or two tight, and was tentative in a collector merge...[and] slightly more aggressive than those of OEM peers."

5/ $TSLA says Hardware 3.0 is set for FSD. And yet, Goldman had a sense of deja vu. The only bolded text in a five-page narrative:

6/ Goldman recites $TSLA's numbers: Improve cars' longevity to achieve 1 million miles. Run fleet at $0.18/mile cost & collect annual gross profit of $0.65/mile, working out (with other assumptions) to $90k annual gross profit per car. It all sounds good if you say it quickly.

7/ Among risks: weak Model 3 demand, weak Model S/Model X demand, shrinking Automotive gross margins, lack of sustained positive free cash
flow generation, and execution on new product (Model Y, semi, solar roof) launches.

8/ Among worries: increasing EV competition and waning EV subsidies.

9/ Also, this: "And without the company invested in any LIDAR initiatives and as their computer just processes vision, this could be very costly if TSLA had to adapt this technology and integrate it into vehicles." Do you feel lucky, punk?

10/ Like a good guest, Goldman Sachs, even as it slashes profit, EBITDA, & revenue forecasts, maintains its $TSLA price target at $210.

11/ So, in effect, Goldman continues to ask, "Hey, Elon, you good to raise at $210 or lower? Check with the people who hold your margin debt and get back to us."

12/ Go back and read Post 2 in this thread. Do you think the pivot worked? TBD $TSLAQ