Thread by @SwissRamble

Now that we have reached the semi-final stage of the 2018/19 Champions League, we can estimate how much English clubs will earn from this competition. This is not completely straightforward, due to changes in the distribution method, but let’s have a go in the following thread.

First of all, the total amount distributed to clubs in the 2018/19 Champions League has increased by 54% (€681m) from €1.269 bln to €1.950 bln. This is now split: participation €488m (25%), performance €585m (30%), TV pool €292m (15%) and coefficient rankings €585m (30%).

In 2018/19 each of the 32 clubs that qualified for the Champions League group stage get €15.25m plus €2.7m for a win & €900k for a draw. Additional prize money for each further stage reached: last 16 €9.5m, quarter-final €10.5m, semi-final €12m, final €15m & winners €19m.

The 2018/19 Champions League prize money has therefore significantly increased over 2017/18, especially in the early stages of the competition. The maximum amount that a club could earn (excluding TV pool & coefficient) is up €25.3m (44%) from €57.2m to €82.5m.

The UEFA coefficient is a new distribution method for 2018/19, based on performances in UEFA tournaments over past 10 years, including bonus points for winners. The €585m pot is divided into shares with each one worth €1.108m, so highest ranked club gets €35.5m, lowest €1.1m.

The new UEFA coefficient distribution method clearly benefits traditional big clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona & Bayern Munich at the expense of clubs from countries with large TV pools (i.e. England and Italy).

However, the overall increase in Champions League prize money, driven by booming TV and commercial deals, means that English clubs will still earn more in 2018/19 than 2017/18, assuming similar progress in the competition.

The 2018/19 English payments based on the UEFA coefficient (with rankings in this year’s competition in brackets) were as follows: #MUFC €31.0m (5th), #MCFC €24.4m (11th), #LFC €23.3m (12th) and #THFC €15.5m (19th).

As a reminder, English clubs’ 2017/18 earnings based on the old distribution system were: #LFC €81m (final), #CFC €65m (last 16), #MCFC €64m (quarter-final), #THFC €61m (last 16) and #MUFC €40m (last 16).

Worth noting impact of TV pool, distributed: (a) half based on position in previous season’s Premier League; (b) half based on current season’s Champions League progress. So #MCFC 3rd place in 2016/17 PL explains why they got less than #CFC, even though they progressed further.

Also it should be mentioned that Scottish clubs receive 10% of the UK TV pool if they qualify for the group stage. So Celtic earned €16m in 2017/18, thus reducing the English pool, but went out in the qualifiers in 2018/19.

Key assumptions for 2018/19 Champions League revenue estimates: (a) English TV pool increases by 30%, in line with new BT Sports deal; (b) this is then split 1/3 TV pool, 2/3 UEFA coefficient, as per total prize money distribution. These numbers are not definitive.

On this basis, the English clubs have earned the following revenue to date from the Champions League (previous season in brackets): #LFC €92m (€81m), #THFC €86m (€61m), #MCFC €93m (€64m) and #MUFC €94m (€40m).

So #MUFC have earned more money to date from the Champions League than any other English club, even though they were knocked-out in the quarter-final. Partly due to finishing 2nd in last season’s Premier League (high TV pool), but largely because of a strong UEFA coefficient,

#LFC Champions League revenue is €92m for reaching the semi-final, up from €81m last season for reaching the final. They have benefited from the hefty increase in prize money, but also have a fairly high UEFA coefficient (ranked 15th, but 12th best of qualified teams).

#THFC Champions League earnings have increased from €61m to €86m for reaching the semi-final (i.e. two rounds further than previous season’s last 16), but they are adversely impacted by a relatively low UEFA coefficient (ranked 25th, but 19th best of qualified teams).

#MCFC have earned €93m from the 2018/19 Champions League, compared to €64m in 2017/18, even though they reached the quarter-finals in both seasons, due to prize money increase. Includes €24m from the new UEFA coefficient (ranked 14th, but 11th best of qualified teams).

#MUFC Champions League earnings increased from €40m to €94m, partly for reaching the quarter-finals (one round further), but largely driven by their historical record, as they are ranked 5th by UEFA. Only received half of 2017/18 TV pool, as qualified by winning Europa League.

Of course, #LFC and #THFC could both progress to the final and might even end up winning the Champions League. Based on some scenario analysis, the maximum that #LFC could earn is €112m, while #THFC maximum is €106m.

The message here is that the English clubs have really coined it in this season’s Champions League, due to a combination of good progress in the competition and the much higher prize money. It has also become clear that it pays to have a good history in Europe, as shown by #MUFC.

Clearly, this has implications for those clubs in the Premier League that have not qualified for Europe, as it’s once again a case of “the rich getting richer”, which poses yet more questions about competitive balance in football.