Thread by @CasMudde

With pre-final results in, most earlier predictions stand:

1. Huge victory for PSOE
2. Massive loss for PP
3. Big loss Podemos
4. Small win for Cs
5. Big win Vox
6. Significant fragmentation
7. No right-wing coalition
8. Nationalists are kingmakers

#ShortThread #28A 🇪🇸

1. Spain bucks (West) European trend of Left losing big and Right winning big. This is even more remarkable given that Left took over government midway.

2. Spain confirms (West) European trend with increased electoral fragmentation, leading to difficult coalition formation with many parties.

(Although this has precedent in Spain, fragmentation has increased)

3. Spain also confirms (West) European trend with (big) win for right populism (ie far right) and underperforming left populism.

4. This election has clear winner (PSOE), but was primarily about massive punishment for PP, which had been pushed out of power over corruption scandals. Its defeat is monumental.

5. PP lost half its support (-16.3%). This is more than Vox and Cs won together! Confirming that the Right overall lost (also in number of seats).

6. Both PP and Cs pivoted (far) right in light of Catalan independence troubles and rise of Vox, but were not rewarded. Lesson learned? (I doubt it)

7. Vox underperformed. Obviously, coming in with 10% is remarkable score, but this was perfect storm for Vox -- PP in deep corruption crisis, immigration heavily discussed and Catalan independence top of (right-wing) agenda.

8. Vox will have a faction of some 25 MPs. We'll see how they perform. Most new far right parties suffer (bad) splits in larger factions.

9. Podemos was punished for internal divisions, personal scandals, and lacklustre position on key issues (notably Catalan indepedence). It lost 6.9% (almost one third) compared to 2016, which was already worse than 2015.

10. Big loss of Podemos confirms that left populist momentum is over (if it ever truly started outside of opinion page of Guardian).

11. Results in Barcelona and Catalonia might point to moderation there too, which could further help PSOE (and Spain more general).

12. With European elections just a month after national elections, expect PSOE to do very well (honeymoon effect), while PP and Vox could do worse, as its voters care less about EU level and have no signal to send to Madrid so short after national elections.

13. #EleccionesGenerales28A should be significant encouragement for not just center-left, but also centrists within right-wing parties. Once again far right turn of mainstream right party was unsuccessful (see also Bavaria or currently The Netherlands).

14. But it should also be a wake-up call to rethink campaigning and coalition formation in this new political reality of (extreme) fragmentation.

15. Those were my 14-cents. Now I advice you to follow real experts of Spanish politics like @jrhopkin @CatherineDVries @Evaanduiza @jrteruel @AstridBarrio

#TheEnd