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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Theresa may can say she wants her withdrawal agreement through parliament "by September" to make it sound like she's got months of time, but she hasn't.
Come September she has to get a Queen's speech through. Crunch! So she has to get it through before that.
But once parliament hits summer recess, she's fucked. So it has to be before that.
Summer recess is usually around July, so she's got two months.

EXCEPT . . .
Except John Bercow has already ruled out another vote on her withdrawal agreement this session.
Which means she's got two months to find a majority and find a way of getting around Bercow's ruling.
All the time while she's losing elections every other week.
September has got nothing to do with it. Theresa May has got until the end of June.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Change UK, "The Indepndent group" They've got a website, and I'm going to see how long it takes me to find their Europe policy
"It doesn’t have to be this way…
We are a new party to speak up for mainstream Britain and bring our country together again."

Together how? They don't say
"These European Parliament elections offer the British people the chance to send a simple message: it’s time for change."

Yes, but what change? It doesn't say.
Read 8 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
So, for example, you can see in Scotland, the seats were won by Tories, Labour, SNP and UKIP.
Northern Ireland, DUP, Sinn Fein and UUP
Wales
Read 12 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
An authoritative website, eh - no, i don't know of any - to tell you who to vote for in the European elections?
That is, which is the best remain party depending which constituency you're in?
By far the most seats went to UKIP, Labour and Tories who got 64 seats between them.

As for other parties,

Greens 3
SNP 2
Lib Dems 1
Plaid Cymru 1
UUP 1
Sinn Fein 1
DUP 1
If you're going to avoid the Brexiteer parties, then you really ought to vote

Scotland: Vote SNP. The only party that won any seats in Scotland last time apart from Labour and Tories.

Wales: Plaid Cymru. The only party to win seats in Wales apart from Labour, Tories and UKIP
Read 6 tweets

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JJH
@JasonJHunter
1/12 Time for a bit of analysis? So EU27 have agreed an extension of A50 until October 31st with a review of progress in Westminster at the end of June.
2/12 TM the PM is still saying that she wants the UK to leave the EU before May 22nd European elections so UK doesn't have to participate in electing MEPs.
3/12 I dont think shes thought that through tho since candidates have to be announced to EU electoral commission within the next week or two. If we haven't left by April 14th then we will have to campaign to win as many pro-remain seats as possible.
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Toby Young
@toadmeister
Yesterday in the @spectator Coffee House Podcast, I suggested @michaelgove should be installed as a caretaker leader until June. I think this is our best chance of saving Brexit. Here’s why 👇
First of all, I’m a staunch Brexiter and the EU’s behaviour throughout the negotiations has made me more anxious to leave, not less. The fact that so many MPs and Whitehall depts have proved unequal to the task of leaving in an orderly manner shows how infantilised the U.K.’s
political class has become as a result of having ceded so much sovereignty to Brussels. The process of renewal cannot begin until we’ve recovered that sovereignty and it cannot happen soon enough. Had the British people not voted to Leave in 2016, I don’t think we could have
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
EU is unsure whether May will send a letter tomorrow or make oral request for extension at #EUCO on Thursday
“Does she have the authority because of the volatility,” said a senior source
Depending on what she does, #EUCO conclusions will either be detailed on extension options or vague. One issue will be whether May wants to hold a Commons vote on extension
There could be an extra summit around 28 or, even 29 March.
Spain will not use Gibraltar issue to complicate an extension - all EU27 have a veto. “A rare moment of Brexit sanity,"
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
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Brefugees
@Brefugees
If only this was true!

We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The Parliamentary calculus states that the only way any Brexit deal will pass is if Labour support the motion. Most #Brexperts don't believe they would, be we think they will and we also think it's a Tory trap. Allow us to explain the logic...
Labour's priority is a General Election, and the bare bones deal being offered by EU loosely matches Labour's CU demands, keeps the NI border open and gives May some scope to soften the WA in exchange for Labour votes. But why would Labour support it and not collapse government?
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Mark Elliott
@ProfMarkElliott
A short thread:

Has Parliament 'taken back control' by passing Amendment 7 to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill?
Amendment 7 amends clause 9 of the EU (Withdrawal) Bill. Clause 9 allows the Government to make secondary legislation implementing withdrawal agreement.
Clause 9 is an especially wide power because it allows primary legislation, including the Withdrawal Bill itself, to be amended.
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