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1. It increasingly feels like Biden, if he's the Democratic nominee, will be Hilary Clinton 2.0, but worse. A campaign based on personal revulsion against Trump, nostalgia for normal politics, & outreach to moderate Republicans.
2. Biden is Hilary Clinton but worse. Clinton generated real enthusiasm as a pioneering woman. Also Clinton made some efforts, admittedly awkward (hot sauce!) to reach the young. Biden's message is people under 40 need to fuck off & die.
3. Both Clinton (with her alt-right speech) & Biden (invoking Charlottesville in announcing his campaign) had campaigns using rhetorical anti-racism as glue to hold together Democratic coalition. This type of performative wokeness is, alas, of limited electoral utility.
4. To be clear, Democrats need to have an anti-racist message but it rings false from white candidates who have the track record Hillary Clinton & (much more so) Biden have. GOP discouragement campaign aimed at black voters in 2016 focused on this & will again in 2020 with Biden
5. It's not just Biden. It's the Democratic leadership class. Pelosi is also committed to making 2016 a rerun of 2020 with Dems making a pitch to moderate suburban Republicans.
6. The operating theory of the Democratic leadership seems to be that the problem in 2016 was Hillary Clinton was a woman, so if you run the same campaign against Trump with a male candidate (Biden), you'll win.
7. Let's say Biden is the candidate & he runs (as he wants to do) a campaign aimed at suburban moderates. 2 questions: 1. can he beat Trump? (Yes, because Dem coalition will be super-mobilized by anti-Trump feelings) 2. Will victory be lasting? (No.)
8. I have no trouble imagining Biden winning a reprise of 2016, with Obama coalition & weaker working class support offset by suburban moderates. But such a coalition seems unstable, unlikely to survive long without antipathy of Trump. Those moderates will edge back to GOP.
9. The stuff Biden will say to win suburban Republicans will dampen enthusiasm among young & among working class, if not in 2020 then soon after in subsequent elections. And GOP will be able to run candidates who borrow Trump's politics without his personal failings.
