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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
That's probably enough highlights from the Berkshire meeting for this morning. Somehow I have been roped in to explain what Buffett and Munger actually do. I don't always agree with them but I try to understand what they actually say and believe. Some people just make stuff up.
"If you have a choice between being a great analyst or being a great salesperson, salesperson is the way to make money. If you can raise $10B fund, you get a 1.5% , fee and you lock people up for ten years, you will do well even if you are the world's dumbest investor." Buffett
In another Twitter thread I'm talking about the contrast between my day job where I have access to "rich Corinthian telemetry" about effectiveness and my many Charlie Munger tweetstorms from this morning where I have almost no telemetry. This is 2019. Where's my telemetry?
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
This WSJ writer doesn't understand the difference between (1) Buffett using value as an analytical style and (2) value as a factor in creating an index fund. The first use of the word "value" has nothing to do with the second. google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.…
Buffett is miserable according to the WSJ author. This chart would indicate Berkshire is in a good place as the sixth largest company in the world.
The online WSJ version of the article completes the trifececta with a headline that claims the study about a factor in a index fund based on "ratios of book equity to market equity" indicates that that the Amazon investment by Berkshire was made during "a dangerous stretch."
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
I've been saying for many years that the rocket launch business isn't that big.

Shotwell: SpaceX has signed 22 launch deals over the last 14 months, despite a downturn in the market for commercial GRO satellites....we’re feeling a little pain right now on the commercial side"
US$ 3B SpaceX revenue a year at US$ 70M per launch on average would be ~43 launches a year. Yes, there other launchers and prices but assume all are all Falcon 9 and you get a sense of total addressable market. Total industry commercial launch now ~$6.2B breakingdefense.com/2019/05/usg-la…
"There were 114 total orbital launches in 2018. Of these, 93 were commercially procured, 15 involved space vehicles, and 6 were not commercially procured" sia.org/wp-content/upl…

Both Musk and Bezos must generate services revenues beyond launch to achieve their objectives.
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"SpaceX has “sufficient capital” to make Starlink operational but would potentially need to raise money if things go wrong with the multibillion-dollar endeavor, which he called “one of the hardest engineering projects I’ve ever seen done.” reuters.com/article/us-spa…
Money, rocket launches and payloads are cheaper now than in the 990s. Many tradeoffs are involved in going to lower orbits. Watching them "operationalize" will be fun.

There is a suplus of launch capacity. Businesses will send payloads up on a space available basis. Its go time
“We see this as a way for SpaceX to generate revenue that can be used to develop more and more advanced rockets and spaceships,” Musk said. “We believe we can use the revenue from Starlink to fund Starship [and get to Mars]." cnbc.com/2019/05/15/mus…
Read 3 tweets

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Nate Silver
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Here's the podcast version of my "I mean, look at the polls, impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea, politically" hot take, which pretty much all of you hate.
I do talk in the podcast about just because impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea (politically) doesn't necessarily make it a good idea for Trump to goad Democrats into impeachment.
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I’m watching S01E01 of Game of Thrones and there’d better be fisting.
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Nate Silver
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#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
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#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
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Lola 🌜
@TheirNameIsLola
Probably the most infuriating aspect of debating anything relating #trans issues is not actually the virulent, anti-trans people -- it's the people who are under the delusion that 'both sides' are somehow right and aren't listening to each other.
Like legitimately, I would much rather face someone telling me I'm a secret rapist than someone telling me that my biggest problem in life is that I'm not genuinely listening to the arguments of the person saying I'm a secret rapist.
And I saw *exactly* the same types of arguments when I was campaigning for marriage equality in the States. Nice, smiley 'liberal' people in the middle who thought I just wasn't listening well enough to the people screaming, "GET YOUR HANDS OFF MARRIAGE" in my face.
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