Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's the podcast version of my "I mean, look at the polls, impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea, politically" hot take, which pretty much all of you hate.
I do talk in the podcast about just because impeaching Trump is probably a bad idea (politically) doesn't necessarily make it a good idea for Trump to goad Democrats into impeachment.
p.s. Probably the worst counter-take is the strawman that's like "SO YOU SHOULD JUST ALWAYS DO WHAT POLLS SAY?!?!?"

#Actually, my argument is as much about the lack of policy upside (what does impeaching but not removing Trump really get Dems?) as much as the political downside.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Actually

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
So, who's gonna make the 3rd Democratic debate, when the qualifying criteria get much tougher? I've got a rundown here. 53eig.ht/2I6Sa3M
Technically, no one has qualified yet since only polls starting on June 28 count. And there will probably be an unexpected surge or two.

But basically we're looking at 8 candidates who are *fairly* safe, Yang and Castro are probably tossups, everyone else has work to do.
The candidates who most benefit are the ones I'd consider in the 2nd tier - Booker, Klobuchar and Beto. Note this is a group of candidates the party establishment likes!

Ratcheting up the winnowing is probably bad news for Sanders, conversely, who benefits from a divided field.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our model had the Raptors slightly favored against the Bucks. And now it has them slightly favored against the Warriors.😬Here's a deep dive into why and whether or not I believe it. 53eig.ht/2W1NsJo
I don't think people realize how good the Raptors' starting 5 is (Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Gasol). They were very good in the regular season, but didn't play together much. Now they're +12.1 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs in a lot of minutes against tough opponents.
I'm less confident it's handling the Warriors correctly, though. I don't buy the "Warriors better without KD" narrative, they pretty clearly aren't IMO, but the Curry-led Warriors are still a really good team.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Polls in the UK European parliamentary elections significantly underestimated support for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, two pro-Remain parties. They slightly overestimated support for the Brexit Party.
Polls also substantially overestimated support for the two traditional parties, Labour and the Conservatives.
Despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary, there is *not* any systematic tendency for nationalist or right-wing parties to overperform their polls in European elections. They underperform them as often as they overperform them. fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pe…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Peter Daou
@peterdaou
EPIC FAIL

Let's not kid ourselves: The Dem leadership has no intention of #impeaching Trump. They've likely polled battleground states to see which way the wind is blowing. It appears Trump will serve his full term politically unscathed. The damage to democracy is incalculable.
What's most disturbing is that the #impeachment issue can't be blamed on the GOP. Dems are the ones with the power to initiate the process.

So I ask this: What was the blue wave for, if not accountability? Dem leaders are telling voters "vote for us but nothing will change."
Here's what gives me hope: There are millions of Americans who see what's happening and are willing to step up and fight injustice. Whether they canvass, phone-bank, volunteer, do digital activism, run for office, etc. they are the heroes safeguarding our democracy.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
ᴸᵁᴸᵁ ᴸᴱ ᴹᴼᴼ 🐮
@LuluLemew
Trump’s Treachery Goes Way Beyond Russia

He’s working for any dictator who flatters him.

slate.com/news-and-polit…
Mueller has ended his Russia investigation, and Republicans are gloating.

Trump and his surrogates are lying.

Mueller has indicted dozens of people.

He has obtained multiple convictions and guilty pleas.
He has proved or confirmed that Manafort, Stone, Donald Jr., and others in the Trump camp collaborated with Russian agents or intermediaries.

According to the Justice Department, Mueller’s report also presents evidence that Trump may have obstructed justice.
Read 122 tweets
Profile picture
Another Planet's Hell 🌊
@cravennewworld
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
Read 24 tweets
Profile picture
Paul Antonopoulos
@oulosP
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
Read 182 tweets
Profile picture
(((Jonathan Katz)))
@JonathanPKatz
1) *puts on amateur food historian hat*
Listen up kids. So when #Trump wants to replace #SNAP benefits with a box of prepackaged dry goods, it’s not just about #fruits and #veggies. It’s about power, race, ethnicity, labor, energy, disability, and language as well.
2) What people eat and what people are supposed to eat and what people had access to eat has always been informed by power. In ancient times, it may have been the nobility eating meat and wheat bread while peasants ate potages. Nowadays, it’s what people should not eat.
3) Just because people are poor does not mean that they do not have their own food preferences, ideas about food, or habits around food. Folks who use SNAP/#foodstamps will use their benefits, as they are able, to buy the food they can afford within these frameworks.
Read 36 tweets
Profile picture
Kurt Bardella
@kurtbardella
1.) Pretty much my entire life I've been asked (primary by white people) the question that I imagine every "asian" person cringes at inside: "Where are you from?" I'm certain the person asking this is completely ignorant to how annoying this question is and why...
2.) Over time, I began to answer the question by saying "New York" or "California" - where I had spent my childhood and formative years - just to give the person the benefit of the doubt that they weren't going where I already knew they were...
3.) Inevitably, they would follow-up with some version of "no, I mean what is your background? Chinese or Japanese?" A.) WTF does it matter B.) Does anyone come up to you and ask - "hey, you Irish or German or Scottish or French or Dutch or etc...
Read 11 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NationalEmergency #SecurityThreat #OsamaBinLaden #Twitter #Hillary #Prosecute #Trump #FreeJulianAssange #WentBeyondReport #TickToc #Clinton #IranDealExit #TREASON #transphobe #TickTock #EspionageAct #MichaelCohen #Greece #StormyDaniel #FakeNews #News #Pensylvania #NoSufficientEvidence #Children #MAGA
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!