, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Yet another new analysis of >8000 stations with daily rainfall data confirming that that heavy precipitation events have become more frequent when aggregated globally. (Thread: 1/n)
This is consistent with theoretical understanding from 1850 and model evidence at least 30 years back. In fact climate models predicted the increase in heavy precipitation before the observations were conclusive. (2/n)
Of course local trends vary a lot because of the natural random character of daily weather. But even on smaller scales like Switzerland heavy rainfall frequency and magnitude has increased at almost all most stations. (3/n) nccs.admin.ch/nccs/en/home/c…
Many studies have demonstrated that part of the increase in heavy precip can be attributed to human induced warming. Models indicate for a 3°C warming the frequency of the "wettest day in ~3yrs" would approximately double (anthr. fraction ~=0.5)
To avoid confusion, an increase in heavy precip does not necessarily imply an increase in damage. Risk/damage is always a combination of the hazard frequency and exposure/vulnerability. The latter typically increases with economic dev and decreases with adaptation. (5/n)
Variability in rainfall from daily to interannual increases also with warming.
So even in places where mean rainfall decreases, variability and extreme rain is likely to increase. (6/n)
Tropical storms are more complicated, and others who have done work on this may want to add to this discussion. (7/7)
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