, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Yet another new analysis of >8000 stations with daily rainfall data confirming that that heavy precipitation events have become more frequent when aggregated globally. (Thread: 1/n)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10…
This is consistent with theoretical understanding from 1850 and model evidence at least 30 years back. In fact climate models predicted the increase in heavy precipitation before the observations were conclusive. (2/n)
nature.com/articles/nclim…
Of course local trends vary a lot because of the natural random character of daily weather. But even on smaller scales like Switzerland heavy rainfall frequency and magnitude has increased at almost all most stations. (3/n) nccs.admin.ch/nccs/en/home/c…
Many studies have demonstrated that part of the increase in heavy precip can be attributed to human induced warming. Models indicate for a 3°C warming the frequency of the "wettest day in ~3yrs" would approximately double (anthr. fraction ~=0.5)
nature.com/articles/nclim…
(4/n)
To avoid confusion, an increase in heavy precip does not necessarily imply an increase in damage. Risk/damage is always a combination of the hazard frequency and exposure/vulnerability. The latter typically increases with economic dev and decreases with adaptation. (5/n)
Variability in rainfall from daily to interannual increases also with warming.
So even in places where mean rainfall decreases, variability and extreme rain is likely to increase. (6/n)
nature.com/articles/s4159…
Tropical storms are more complicated, and others who have done work on this may want to add to this discussion. (7/7)
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Reto Knutti ETH
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!